Based on my overall predictions, business should definitely be up from this same weekend last year.
It's going to be a close race for #1 this weekend between three possible breakout hits. For now, it looks like TV series adaptation Downton Abbey has the edge. It's a movie adaptation of a series that has won multiple awards and has a very strong fanbase. Reviews are solid and pre-sales have been among the strongest for non-Disney films this year. I think it will break free from the pack to a possible debut in the mid-20's millions.
Meanwhile, Sylvester Stallone has been earning solid buzz for his return as Rambo in Rambo: Last Blood. The hard R action flick is a sequel to the 2008 reboot which wasn't a big hit, but managed fairly respectable numbers. Being a potential finale to the 35-year old franchise will also definitely bring out fans young and old. I think it stands a great chance at reaching the $20 million projections, if not a little higher.
Finally, Brad Pitt and Disney are hoping that Fox release Ad Astra hits a chord with audiences. Space thrillers have proven time and time again to be big hits, though this one hasn't quite caught on like Gravity and The Martian. Some mild awards season buzz will help, as will Brad Pitt's fanbase. This is tracking for the high-teens, which I see it hitting at this time (in line with last year's First Man). If it didn't have tough competition for other adults to face, it might would have gotten more towards the mid-20's if not $30 million.
Of course, all of these movies will be competing against It - Chapter 2 and Hustlers, which are both expected to have solid holding power. It should fall around 50%, while Hustlers will probably hold on a bit stronger to the tune of 40-45%, which would put both around $20 million apiece and in the race for first place as well.
Here's the predicted Top 10:
#1: Downton Abbey ($24 million)
#2: Rambo: Last Blood ($21 million)
#3: It - Chapter 2 ($20 million, -51%)
#4: Hustlers ($19 million, -43%)
#5: Ad Astra ($18 million)
#6: Angel Has Fallen ($3 million, -32%)
#7 (tie): Good Boys ($2.75 million, -36%)
#7 (tie): The Lion King ($2.75 million, -24%)
#9: Overcomer ($2.2 million, -20%)
#10: Hobbs and Shaw ($2 million, -29%)
