Based on my predictions, unless a title overperforms, overall business looks to be just behind this same weekend last year's Top 10, which was led by an underwhelming debut from the reboot of Predator ($24.6 million).
It: Chapter 2 is likely to remain on top, even with a drop that will likely be a bit heavier than the first film's 51% sophomore drop from two years ago (sequels usually fade faster). Overall, the film with the best chance at topping it is Hustlers, which is riding solid marketing and buzz (as well as reviews) to pull in the female audience. Some are thinking it could get above $25 million, but I'm going to aim a little lower as original films tend to have a harder time in the marketplace nowadays (and the R rating and more mature content may limit its audience too). A $24 million launch would top Bad Moms for struggling distributor STX Films' biggest opening yet.
As for The Goldfinch, Warner Bros. was hoping for this to be an awards season play, but its' backfiring with poor reception from critics. As a result, the book adaptation is going to have a hard time finding an audience. Falling short of $10 million looks very likely considering the modest marketing effort.
Beyond that, all August holdovers should be able to hold decent as both newbies don't really pose a threat to their audiences.
Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: It - Chapter 2 ($40 million, -56%)
#2: Hustlers ($24 million)
#3: The Goldfinch ($9 million)
#4: Angel Has Fallen ($4.2 million, -31%)
#5: Good Boys ($3.5 million, -35%)
#6: The Lion King ($3 million, -29%)
#7: Overcomer ($2.75 million, -27%)
#8: Hobbs and Shaw ($2.25 million, -39%)
#9: The Peanut Butter Falcon ($1.75 million, -24%)
#10: Dora and the Lost City of Gold ($1.5 million, -36%)
