Based on my predictions, overall business should be about even with this same weekend last year, which featured The Meg open ahead of expectations to a $45 million launch.
Here's my predicted Top 10:
#1: Hobbs and Shaw ($29 million, -52%)
While word-of-mouth is solid, action films rarely have strong second weekend holds. And the influx of many different new releases won't help either. I think a drop close to 50% should be about expected for this spin-off.
#2: Dora and the Lost City of Gold ($23 million)
Out of all five new releases, this one stands the best chance at taking the top spot. It will bring in families (particularly Latino families), as distributor Paramount has done a great job in its marketing of appealing to kids as well as young adults who grew up with Dora the Explorer back in the late-90's/early-2000's. I can see this opening in line with last year's Christopher Robin ($24 million), and playing solidly through Labor Day.
#3: The Lion King ($19 million, -51%)
With two new PG-rated films opening this weekend, Lion won't have much choice but to keep retreating. That won't diminish its might, however.
#4: The Kitchen ($13.5 million)
This is a tricky one to predict, but I'm betting on the fact that a lack of true options for females will give this one a chance at doing solid business. True, Melissa McCarthy isn't as big of a draw as she used to be. But, an R-rated comic book adaptation aimed at females? Solid marketing on Warner Bros.' part should lead to a fairly decent opening.
#5: Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark ($12 million)
Meanwhile, Lionsgate is hoping that their adaptation of the children's horror series will pull in the horror crowd. The good news is, buzz around the trailers has been very good. The bad news is, the horror marketplace has been fairly crowded this summer. There's definitely room for a breakout if overall reception is great, but for now, an opening on the high-end of average for the genre sounds about right at this point.
#6: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood ($11 million, -45%)
People are rooting for Quentin Tarantino's latest to become a leggy hit. But with so many options for adults opening this weekend, its' going to be tough for this one to stand out in the midst of a crowded marketplace.
#7: The Art of Racing in the Rain ($9 million)
I'm questioning as to why Disney chose this weekend to release this Fox title. It's a family film and it has to open against Dora. That's not a lot of confidence if you ask me. But Disney is trying to get the word out, and overall buzz is in line with earlier this year's A Dog's Journey ($8.5 million opening). The dog genre hasn't exactly lit the box office on fire this year, so don't look for much out of this one this weekend.
#8: Spider-Man: Far From Home ($4.5 million, -42%)
Luckily for Spidey, there's no new superhero competition this weekend, which should allow this film to hold decently in the face of all the new releases.
#9 (tie): Brian Banks ($4 million)
It's difficult for me to predict how this true story sports drama will fare. Distributor Bleecker Street is getting it into 1,500 locations, which will limit its breakout potential. Its' received some marketing on a few TV networks (particularly ESPN), but overall awareness seems fairly low. It may find a stronger audience on streaming or home entertainment later if my prediction proves too optimistic.
#9 (tie): Toy Story 4 ($4 million, -45%)
An onslaught of new family competition isn't good news for the Pixar flick. However, like Lion King, its' already become a blockbuster, so none of this will be alarming per se.
