Based on my predictions, overall business should be ahead of this same weekend last year, which was led by Mission: Impossible - Fallout ($61 million)..
Here's my predicted Top 10:
#1: The Lion King ($85 million, -56%)
Daily grosses for this remake have been nothing short of spectacular (racking up another $68 million through Wednesday). However, with a launch as big as $191 million (in actuals), some front-loaded signs should be expected. A drop close to 55% should be a realistic expectation.
#2: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood ($36 million)
With strong reviews from a festival opening, Quentin Tarantino's fanbase and stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt in mind, this seems to be destined for a breakout. Adults looking for something different will definitely flock to this one, and early awards season buzz will help as well. Sony's marketing effort has been interestingly restrained, but that could be because Tarantino has not wanted much of the film to be spoiled yet. That could be a positive too. I'd expect a debut in the mid-to-high 30's millions, with room for upside.
#3: Spider-Man: Far From Home ($13 million, -39%)
With the lone new release appealing more to adults, this superhero flick should continue to hold solidly.
#4: Toy Story 4 ($10.5 million, -33%)
No added competition for families should mean a strong hold for this Pixar smash.
#5: Crawl ($3.7 million, -39%)
Yes, the new film in the marketplace is R rated, but its' not a horror flick. Better-than-expected reception for this flick should allow a decent hold.
#6: Yesterday ($3.5 million, -30%)
Benefiting from strong word-of-mouth, this Beatles musical should appeal to older moviegoers not interested in Tarantino's latest.
#7: Aladdin ($2.75 million, -33%)
While its' on the last leg of its run, the competition is minimal enough to earn this remake a 10th weekend in the list.
#8: Stuber ($2.3 million, -44%)
A lack of any true comedies in the marketplace should benefit this otherwise disappointing performer.
#9: Annabelle Comes Home ($1.8 million, -31%)
Lack of any true horror competition will come in handy here.
#10: Midsommar ($1.1 million, -32%)
Same reason as #9.
Also, be on the lookout for the critically-acclaimed dramedy The Farewell, which averaged astounding numbers in 35 locations. It's expanding to around 150, and could do enough to steal a spot.
