Overall business, while strong, will likely fall short of this same weekend last year, which featured the strong debut of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($148 million) plus an $80 million second weekend for Incredibles 2.
Here's the projected Top 10:
#1: Toy Story 4 ($170 million)
Pixar definitely knows how to play the sequel game. It's been nine years since the Best Picture-nominated Toy Story 3 rode to animation records, and many people believed it was the perfect finale to that series. Well, Pixar found another story to tell, and this new installment has even more excitement and buzz (pun not intended) building. Some are thinking it could top Incredibles 2's $182 million launch last year for the animation record (and maybe even reach $200 million). Right now, I'm not seeing quite as much must-see fanfare as that particular film. I could be wrong, but I think a $160-175 million launch seems a bit more likely. But, regardless of how it opens, its' going to be big.
#2: Child's Play ($20 million)
I have to say, this is an interesting counter-programming play. A horror reboot of the popular Chucky films. Solid marketing and a tonal opposite to Toy Story all point to what could be a strong second place debut. I think an opening along the lines of Ma from a few weeks back ($18 million) seems likely.
#3: Men in Black: International ($14 million, -53%)
Mixed word-of-mouth and more competition for younger crowds will not help matters for this unsuccessful reboot, as it prepares to likely collapse a bit this weekend.
#4: The Secret Life of Pets 2 ($11 million, -55%)
The film that will likely take the biggest hit from Toy Story will likely be this competing (and underperfoming) animated sequel. Illumination has had the upper hand in recent years, so they will hope to have better luck with next year's Minions 2.
#5: Aladdin ($10 million, -42%)
Being a fellow Disney movie, you can bet there will probably be double-features. That means Aladdin probably will have a solid hold this weekend, if not quite as strong as last week.
#6: Rocketman ($6 million, -36%)
Thankfully for Paramount, older audiences won't be pulled too much by Toy Story 4. That should give Rocketman the weekend's best hold.
#7: Anna ($5 million)
Luc Besson is back this weekend with his action flick Anna. But the last-minute scheduled release hasn't exactly pulled in a lot of must-see anticipation (it does carry a somewhat similar vibe to his Scarlett Johannson thriller Lucy, but had a bigger studio and marketing effort behind it). Look for a quieter debut here, with maybe less than I'm expecting if walk-up business isn't there.
#8: Shaft ($4.5 million, -49%)
Despite apparent solid word-of-mouth, Shaft seems likely to get lost in the midst of more widely-appealing movies.
#9: Godzilla: King of the Monsters ($4.5 million, -49%)
The monster mash sequel is continuing to drop fast as audience word-of-mouth isn't strong enough and competition is way too much.
#10: Dark Phoenix ($4 million, -57%)
Little enthusiasm for this whimper of an X-Men finale points to a very quick exit.
