Thursday, May 2, 2019

Weekend Box Office Predictions for May 3-5, 2019.

With the summer season officially in full swing, business is looking to continue on a positive streak. Business should soar ahead of this same weekend last year, when Infinity War remained on top with $115 million in its second weekend.

Here is the projected Top 10:

#1: Avengers: Endgame ($140 million, -61%)

It is really hard to determine how this movie will hold. I do have to lean towards the higher end, however, as it's likely more fans rushed out to see this opening weekend. Endgame also didn't quite grab the weekday records this week, as it dropped a bit harder on Monday and Tuesday. However, anywhere between $140 and $160 million would still be massive (audiences are wanting to rewatch it also). Star Wars: The Force Awakens holds the second weekend record at $149 million, which could be beat. Right now, I'm leaning towards Endgame falling short, however.


#2: Long Shot ($16 million)

For right now, the film with the best shot at second place is Seth Rogen and Charlize Theron's team-up comedy. The R-rated comedy enters in as there hasn't been any true adult comedies in the marketplace in quite some time. That will prove a distinct advantage. With strong marketing and buzz heading in, I think this one could break out a bit. While Endgame's lingering presence will keep it from getting a major breakout, it still looks to be in solid shape.


#3: The Intruder ($14 million)

This low-budget thriller from Sony and Screen Gems also looks like its set for solid numbers. Buzz and marketing have both been very good (especially on social media), and the presence of Dennis Quaid in a rare villainous turn will appeal to older crowds. Films that aim for a more African-American audience can tend to break out or fall flat. I'm leaning more towards the middle here, as the PG-13 rating will appeal to younger crowds as well (if they're not already snapped up by Endgame that is).


#4: Uglydolls ($12 million)

This is one I'm having a hard time with, as it seems like STX Entertainment is trying to mimic the success of DreamWorks Animation's Trolls. And despite a strong voice cast with Kelly Clarkson, Blake Shelton, Janelle Monae and Nick Jonas, its' not exactly exciting younger kids. Trailer views have been strong, and the music presence may bring in more awareness. But Endgame will keep older ones at bay and some families may choose to skip this in favor of next week's more buzzy Detective Pikachu. $10 million to low-teens sounds about right here.


#5: Captain Marvel ($5 million, -40%)

While its nine weeks into its run, it sounds like Marvel fans will continue to come out and support this one as well.


#6: Breakthrough ($4.7 million, -31%)

With Endgame beginning to release steam, this sounds like the movie that has the best chance of seeing strong legs going forward. The faith-based theme, positive word-of-mouth and not much options for older crowds will keep this one going.


#7: The Curse of La Llarona ($4.5 million, -44%)

The good news is with Endgame losing buzz, this horror flick should save a bit of face after its nasty fall last week.


#8: Shazam ($3.5 million, -38%)

Those who have already seen Endgame may want a bit more DC at this point. With that in mind, this particular superhero flick will probably have a much better hold this week.



#9 (tie): Dumbo ($2 million, -43%)

Disney's remake will have to deal with competition from Uglydolls, and probably will get lost a bit as it continues to shed screens for more appealing options.


#9 (tie): Little ($2 million, -43%)

It's going to be hard for this to regain momentum. While the PG-13 rating helps against Long Shot, some of its core audience will head to see Intruder this weekend. Thank goodness that budget was small.