Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Memorial Day Weekend Box Office: "Aladdin" Wishes Up Strong Business, Holdovers Mostly Deliver as Other Newbies Disappoint...

Overall business for the extended holiday ended up close to flat with last year (off 0.7% before actuals are reported), when Solo: A Star Wars Story earned $103 million over Memorial Day Weekend last year.


Aladdin (Official 2019 Film Poster).pngThere was uncertainty as to whether or not Disney would score with their Aladdin remake. With quite a bit of controversy heading into release, many were thinking $80 million for the four-day weekend was the ceiling. But, it surprisingly brought out a larger crowd than expected, with a strong $90.4 million over the three-day weekend proper (very strong $20,197 per-venue average), and a projected $112.7 million pick-up through Monday. For the Memorial Day stretch, it's the fifth-biggest start ever for the frame (behind Pirates of the Caribbean 3, Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull, X-Men: The Last Stand and Fast and Furious 6), and is an improvement over the last several Memorial Day attempts by the Mouse House (Tomorrowland, Alice through the Looking Glass, Pirates of the Caribbean 5 and Solo). Now, its' nowhere near Beauty and the Beast ($177 million opening), but it's in line with The Jungle Book ($103 million 3-day launch).



Aladdin managed to succeed strongly thanks to 90's nostalgia. The original classic has its' fanbase, and this was a great opportunity for parents to take their kids to introduce the story. And Will Smith (who received solid remarks for his performance) also pulled in 80's and 90's kids thanks to his cult classic Fresh Prince of Bel-Air. Reviews were mixed-to-positive (58% on Rotten Tomatoes), and audiences gave it a rave "A" CinemaScore (and 90% definite recommend on PostTrak).

Overseas, Aladdin earned $121 million for a $234 million worldwide launch. It's opened in most territories except Japan (China earned $19 million). Right now, its' likely it earns well over $500 million at this point, perhaps even higher if it holds well. Domestically, it will have two weeks with the family audience before The Secret Life of Pets 2 opens. But I think it can continue playing until 4th of July, as well as play alongside Toy Story 4 when that opens on June 21. At this point, unless it collapses in the coming weeks, a domestic gross near or over $250 million seems likely. If word-of-mouth spreads, it could even get over $300 million.

Following a strong opening last week, John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum is showing signs of being front-loaded, but that's not exactly a horrible thing at this point. Parabellum was down 57% to $24.6 million ($31 million projected through Monday), for a strong $107.6 million gross in 11 days. Parabellum passed the final gross of Chapter 2 ($90 million) on Friday, and is also already the franchise's biggest grosser worldwide too, with $180 million so far.

Sliding one spot to third, Avengers: Endgame finally had a strong hold in its fifth weekend. The superhero finale was down 43% to $17.2 million, for a projected $22.3 million through Monday. On Monday, it became only the second film in history to pass $800 million stateside (its at $803.6 million in one month of release). The Memorial Day Weekend gross is exactly the same as Infinity War, which had earned $627.6 million through the same point. If Endgame plays out like its predecessor from here, it will end its run at $850-855 million stateside. Worldwide, its' at $2.68 billion with $110 million left to reach Avatar's $2.78 billion gross. Right now, I'm leaning towards the film falling ultimately short, but I don't think Disney will be complaining either way.

Detective Pikachu followed with an OK hold. The anime adaptation was off 47% in its third frame to $13.4 million, and a projected $17.3 million through Monday. In 18 days, its' earned $120.1 million. While the film hasn't performed quite as strong as some optimistic forecasts have projected, its' on track for a solid finish in the $150-160 million range. Overseas, its' a hit with the worldwide gross passing $350 million on its way to $450 million or more.

In fifth place we have the first of the other newbies, superhero horror flick Brightburn. The buzzy indie release didn't exactly light the box office on fire, with $7.9 million over the three-day stretch (light $3,017 per-venue average), and a projected $9.5 million through Monday. Analysts were believing this might would have a chance at hitting the mid-to-high teens for the weekend, as it had a very good marketing campaign. On the very positive side, however, the budget was a light $6 million. So, overall losses for distributor Sony/Screen Gems will likely be on the minimal side. Reviews were mixed, and audiences gave it a mixed "C+" CinemaScore.

As for the other rookie, Booksmart didn't take advantage of its' strong critical reviews. The R-rated comedy earned only $6.9 million in sixth place over the weekend (weak $2,771 per-venue average), and $8.7 million projected through Monday. Expectations varied around $10-12 million for the four-day weekend. The Olivia Wilde film earned a "B+" CinemaScore in addition to its' 97% Rotten Tomatoes score. With little to no competition coming up, the film might be able to hold stronger than its competition. But, in the meantime, with no budget info, I don't think its' going to be profitable.

A Dog's Journey had a bit of a hard time keeping up with the rest of the competition, down 48% over the three-day stretch to $4.2 million ($5.5 million with Monday). The sequel has earned a weak $16.4 million gross in 11 days, lower than the $18 million A Dog's Purpose earned on opening weekend. Yes, the budget was likely small, but distributor Universal certainly expected more out of this title as it will likely struggle to reach $25 million stateside.

The Hustle had a better hold this frame, off 38% to $3.8 million ($4.8 million including Monday), for a $30.8 million pick-up in 18 days. Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson have also pickpocketed nearly $70 million worldwide. The Intruder was down 43% to $2.3 million ($2.9 million through Monday), for a very good $32.6 million gross in 25 days (against an $8 million budget). Rounding out the Top 10 was Long Shot, which fell 51% in its fourth frame to $1.6 million ($2.1 million through Monday), for a disappointing $29.2 million gross in the same amount of time.

And that's about it. Next weekend, three potential strong films open. Action fans get sequel Godzilla: King of the Monsters, music fans get Elton John biopic Rocketman, and horror fans get Ma. I will have a predictions post out on Thursday. :)  Hope all is having a great week so far!