It's going to be a nail-biter this weekend, but it's not going to be a very strong one either. Overall business looks to trail this same weekend last year, which had A Quiet Place and Rampage earn $20 million apiece, and two new releases earn at least $15 million in addition. Of course, it's the calm before the Avengers storm as well.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Breakthrough ($15.5 million, $19 million 5-day launch)
At first I was leaning towards the horror pic, but I'm now beginning to think this might have the upper hand. Faith-based films can tend to breakout (a'la I Can Only Imagine and Heaven is for Real). The only thing holding this one back a bit is a Wednesday opening. The $1.9 million first day gross was the exact same as Miracles from Heaven's Wednesday start back in 2016, which later went on to earn $15 million in its first weekend ($18.5 million five-day launch). I think Breakthrough will either match or slightly exceed that. It has solid buzz and Chrissy Metz of the buzzy TV show This is Us in its' corner. If the rest of my predictions are correct, that will put it in serious contention for first place.
#2: Shazam ($15 million, -39%)
With one more week until Avengers: Endgame, Shazam will hope for a stronger hold in its third frame before surely losing screens and business next week. Easter and Spring Break usually mean solid business for all involved, so I definitely think this will hold better than last week. If it can hold stronger than I'm expecting, then it could very well keep the top spot for a third-straight weekend.
#3: The Curse of La Llarona ($14 million)
This is the movie that I think will underperform a bit in comparison to expectations. It's not for lack of trying, but I think Warner Bros. should have found a different date for this title. It's the third horror flick in the past month (after the huge hit Us and the moderate success Pet Sematary), and the R rating will make it inaccessible for younger viewers. It does have the Conjuring brand behind it which could help. However, buzz hasn't really been that impressive either. If Warners would have maybe tried a release later in the summer season, it might would find better numbers.
#4: Little ($8.5 million, -45%)
These kinds of films usually don't hold very well. And while Little has received very positive word-of-mouth and appeals to a younger crowd, I just don't think it will have strong legs. But, it does have a small budget on its side.
#5: Captain Marvel ($7 million, -19%)
So, why am I predicting such a strong hold for this superhero flick? Mostly because it's MCU successor is around the corner. Black Panther was off only 15% in advance of Infinity War. I honestly would not be surprised to see something similar here.
#6: Dumbo ($6 million, -35%)
Spring Break and Easter are usually very kind to kids' movies. Unfortunately, the solid holding power here will be coming too late for Dumbo, who is already heading for a rare write-down for the Mouse House.
#7: Penguins ($4.7 million, $5.5 million 5-day launch)
Disney will have three films in the list this week (four if you count them technically releasing Fox film Breakthrough). Their last entry is their latest from Disneynature. The small label doesn't usually bring in big business (except for a rare success or two), and Penguins is already proving to most likely be on the more modest side, with $500,000 on Wednesday. The film's strongest weekday business will likely be on Monday (Earth Day).
#8 (tie): Pet Sematary ($4.5 million, -55%)
With a new horror film in the marketplace, this one will probably continue to fade fast. Paramount is probably thankful for a small budget at this point.
#8 (tie): Hellboy ($4.5 million, -63%)
With almost nonexistent buzz and mixed audience reception, this R-rated flick is set to fade very fast.
#10: Missing Link ($3.8 million, -35%)
Like Dumbo, Missing Link will benefit greatly from Spring Break and Easter. However, its' not going to be able to make up any lost ground from a weak start last week.
