As everyone pretty much knows, Avengers: Endgame finally debuts in theaters this weekend one year after Infinity War shocked the world. Not only was it a cliffhanger that had everyone in suspense, it shattered the opening weekend record held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens with a massive $257 million opening weekend. Now, the eagerly-awaited follow-up arrives with perhaps an even larger opening in store.
One sign of an opening for the ages is that the film already debuted in China yesterday with a record $107 million opening day. Overall pre-sales are record-setters as well, with the film surpassing The Force Awakens' pre-sale record in just six hours. It sold more tickets domestically in its first eight hours than Infinity War did in its first week. That's a level of anticipation that I've never seen in a movie before, as the MCU has reached an all-time high as far as popularity goes (and may still be surging).
There are some analysts that believe Endgame could be the first film to reach $300 million in its opening weekend, and even $1 billion worldwide in its first three days. The thing is, how high this film will go is a very challenging one. I think it may do one of two scenarios. One, Endgame takes advantage of all the hype and gets to those high points. Second, it could be like The Last Jedi (and similar sequels) and fall a bit short. That similar drop would put it at a $230 million launch, which is still huge by all means.
That being said, Endgame has the promise of a "finale", which will bring out fans that have been with the MCU since the first Iron Man in 2008. It doesn't carry the middle chapter/waning of anticipatory buzz like Last Jedi did (which followed a movie that carried the distinction of being the first Star Wars movie in 10 years). Meanwhile, reviews are stellar (97% on Rotten Tomatoes) and more than 4,000 showtimes worldwide are sold out (the film is releasing in a record 4,600 locations). That being said, many sequels have more upfront demand and that should be taken into consideration as well. And, being a 3-hour movie, a more limited number of showtimes could hold it back a bit as well.
In the end, I'm going to settle for a middle ground and believe Endgame will break the opening weekend record, but only by a little bit, not by as much as some analysts think. I'm going to predict a $270 million opening weekend, followed by a run to around $700 million stateside. Overseas, with what is likely to be a near-$300 million launch in China, worldwide looks to be a record-smasher as well. I'm thinking along the lines of $900 million, with a possibility of $1 billion but not sure if it can do that. But, one thing is for sure, it will definitely earn more than $2 billion worldwide like its predecessor.
Meanwhile, here's the rest of the predicted Top 10. With such a big title opening, I expect most films to fall at least 45-50% from last week. The only exception to this rule will be Captain Marvel , which will benefit greatly from possible double-features/screenings before Endgame.
#2: The Curse of La Llarona ($11.5 million, -57%)
#3: Captain Marvel ($7 million, -23%)
#4: Shazam ($6.5 million, -61%)
#5: Breakthrough ($6 million, -47%)
#6: Little ($4 million, -52%)
#7: Dumbo ($3.5 million, -47%)
#8: Missing Link ($2.2 million, -47%)
#8: Missing Link ($2.2 million, -47%)
#9: Pet Sematary ($2 million, -59%)
#10: Us ($1.8 million, -57%)
#10: Us ($1.8 million, -57%)
