Based on my predictions, overall box office should at least be even with this same frame last year, which had Ready Player One on top with $41 million. However, it won't be an even apples-to-apples comparison as Easter and Spring Break factored into this same weekend last year.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Dumbo ($62 million)
Disney should easily claim the top spot with their latest remake, this time a reboot of their 1941 classic. Dumbo isn't the most well-renowned Disney film, as the character is more recognizable for the classic ride. So, I would not expect the film to climb to the heights of recent Disney remakes such as Beauty and the Beast or The Jungle Book. It features director Tim Burton, but his name hasn't been quite as prominent in the marketing either. But the Disney marketing machine is still in full force, with some solid buzz. I think a debut a little bit behind 2015's Cinderella ($67 million) looks likely here, with maybe some room for upside.
#2: Us ($33 million, -53%)
With the huge debut last week, don't expect Us to have anywhere near as good holding power as Get Out did back two years ago. It's more likely to play like a normal horror flick. But, a second weekend of this much money is still huge by all means for a low-budget title.
#3: Captain Marvel ($19 million, -46%)
Marvel's latest will remain solidly in the mix. Drive-in double features with Dumbo (another Disney release) should also help keep the hold under 50%.
#4: Five Feet Apart ($5.5 million, -38%)
Almost no other options for the date night crowd should signal another very good hold for this romantic dramedy.
#5: Wonder Park ($4.5 million, -50%)
With Dumbo attracting families, its' likely this amusement park of a film will have a steep drop.
#6: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World ($3.5 million, -46%)
Dumbo once again will steal families from this movie as well.
#7: Unplanned ($3 million)
This is a tough movie to predict. Its' received strong pre-sales, and has some buzz behind it. However, marketing hasn't been very strong. It also has received some controversy for getting an R rating from the MPAA. With a wide debut in over 1,000 locations, Pure Flix should see a decent turnout here.
#8: A Madea Family Funeral ($2.5 million, -45%)
No real comedy competition means that Madea should see another good hold here this weekend.
#9: The Beach Bum ($2 million)
Debuting in semi-wide release, this entry with Matthew McCaugnahey and Zac Efron has received little attention. It could turn in OK numbers, but this number might be a bit too generous.
#10: Gloria Bell ($1.3 million, -28%)
With not many options for more mature adults, this should see the best hold in the list.
