With a strong holdover, overall business looks to remain ahead of last year, which had Black Panther edge out Tomb Raider ($23.6 million) and I Can Only Imagine ($17.1 million) to remain #1 with $26.7 million.
Here's the projected Top 10:
#1: Captain Marvel ($68 million, -56%)
As I mentioned before, word-of-mouth hasn't been the strongest for this particular MCU film (despite an "A" CinemaScore), as none of the reception seems to scream "must-see". With this in mind, I think the film will drop a bit harder than anticipated. However, it will still cruise to an easy win.
#2: Wonder Park ($15 million)
This is a rarity in today's world. A big-studio, original animated release. Not a sequel or a remake, just an original story. Animation fans and some families will probably show up. How to Train Your Dragon 3 will still be an option, and Captain Marvel will probably remain an option for older kids. But younger kids and those looking for an original film will probably help this one out a little bit.
#3: Five Feet Apart ($10 million)
Hoping to become the next Fault in Our Stars, this grounded romantic dramedy has received a strong marketing effort. With most options for date night couples not exactly lighting the business on fire, I wouldn't expect anywhere near that film's massive performance. However, there seems to be enough momentum here that it could hit double digits.
#4: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World ($8.5 million, -42%)
Wonder Park will provide some competition, yet it should pull in enough business to remain in the Top 5.
#5: A Madea Family Funeral ($6.5 million, -48%)
This final Madea effort will continue to drop at a typically heavy pace for Perry, but its' still in strong shape domestically.
#6: Captive State ($3.5 million)
This sci-fi thriller hasn't gotten the marketing or buzz needed to really pull in an audience. Original sci-fi films are tough sells these days anyway. In the meantime, distributor Focus Features just looks like they are dumping this here. Critical reception aside, don't expect this to earn much.
#7: No Manches Frida 2 ($3 million)
In fact, this movie is the dark horse this weekend. A sequel to the Spanish film No Manches Frida (which earned $3.5 million in its opening), Spanish films usually pull in a strong crowd this time of year. While it opens in only around 500 locations, I still would not be surprised if this ended up in the Top 10.
#8 (tie): The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part ($2 million, -49%)
Finally passing the century mark at the box office, this sequel will probably face a tough drop with another animated feature in town. Now its' up to Warner Bros. to figure out what went wrong here.
#8 (tie): Alita: Battle Angel ($2 million, -38%)
A lack of any real added competition for action fans should allow Alita to have one more good hold this weekend.
#10: Green Book ($1.5 million, -40%)
Having released on DVD this week, this forecast might be a bit too generous. However, with other films from last week losing a lot of screens, this seems like the best bet to round out the list.
