The box office is set for a major upkick this weekend, after a relatively weak January and February. Thanks to what should be a huge debut, overall business should track ahead of this same weekend last year, which featured Black Panther topping A Wrinkle in Time ($33 million) for a fourth-straight weekend at #1 with $40 million.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Captain Marvel ($155 million)
Thanks to strong buzz and the MCU's impenetrable track record (especially coming off of Infinity War), Captain Marvel is set to be a massive hit this weekend. The fact that this is their first female-lead superhero will bring out a female crowd that usually doesn't show up for superhero flicks. Wonder Woman opened to $103 million for the DC Universe two years ago, and was one of the leggiest films of recent memory earning over $400 million ultimately. With the buzz and anticipation in mind, plus the close proximity to Avengers: Endgame late next month, this will likely outpace that previous superwoman pic. I'm going to aim towards the higher range of expectations, though I don't think it will be quite as huge as Black Panther (which was truly a cultural phenomenon).
#2: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World ($17 million, -43%)
Older kids will be distracted by Captain Marvel, but younger kids too young for superhero flicks will likely still flock to this animated adventure. I would expect a hold similar to last week.
#3: A Madea Family Funeral ($12 million, -56%)
The Madea films are usually very front-loaded at the box office. Fans probably rushed out last week. I would expect similar results here.
#4: The LEGO Movie 2 ($4 million, -39%)
Like Dragon, older kids will be distracted, but younger kids will keep this one afloat in the Top 5.
#5: Alita: Battle Angel ($3.5 million, -52%)
This is the film that will probably be given the most direct hit from Captain Marvel. The sci-fi action flick will likely start to fade fast at this point.
#6: Green Book ($3 million, -35%)
Out of the entire list of holdovers, this one should have the strongest hold as older audiences won't be interested so much with superheroes.
#7 (tie): Fighting with My Family ($2.5 million, -47%)
This wrestling flick will likely lose teenagers' attention from another female hero.
#7 (tie): Isn't It Romantic ($2.5 million, -45%)
Females and teenage couples might still see this, though Captain Marvel will probably overshadow most releases at this point.
#9: Greta ($2.2 million, -51%)
A lack of positive word-of-mouth, enthusiasm or buzz will likely lead this to fade fast and get lost in the midst of more appealing titles.
#10: What Men Want ($1.5 million, -46%)
This only remains in the list because of just one wide release this week. Yet, Taraji P. Henson's flick will probably continue to slide fast with audiences distracted by the big new event.
