Based on this weekend's predictions, overall business looks to once again fall short of last year, which once again had Black Panther at #1 with $111 million, ahead of Game Night ($17 million) and Annihilation ($11 million).
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World ($42 million)
With this being the final installment, expectations are pretty high. How to Train Your Dragon also carries a unique distinction, with all three installments distributed by different studios (Paramount the first one, Fox the second one and Universal this one). Overall buzz and advance reception has been very strong, though opening a big-budget animated flick in the winter months can be challenging (as evidenced by LEGO Movie 2 two weeks ago). I would expect an opening in line with Kung Fu Panda 3 ($41 million), which would also be in line with the first Dragon film ($43 million).
#2: Alita: Battle Angel ($13 million, -53%)
Word-of-mouth does seem very strong for the James Cameron/Robert Rodriguez film, and it did play a bit like a family film last week. However, sci-fi films usually don't tend to hold well, and families will be distracted by Dragon this weekend. I would expect a drop around the 50% mark.
#3: The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part ($11.5 million, -46%)
For this sequel, it will probably have a harder drop this weekend thanks to Dragon. It will need a stronger hold to try and make up ground with its predecessors.
#4: Isn't It Romantic? ($8.5 million, -40%)
With Valentine's Day come and gone, this romantic comedy probably won't be a leggy hit. That being said, a lack of new options for teenagers and females probably will have this movie continue to be a solid option.
#5: Fighting with My Family ($8 million)
This is going to be a tough one to predict. Based on a true story, this PG-13 wrestling pic opened to strong numbers in limited release last week. Overall though, buzz and anticipation seem fairly mild. Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's involvement will help, as will strong advance critical reception. I think a high-single digits debut should help create some interest here, followed by a somewhat leggy run if word-of-mouth is good.
#6: What Men Want ($6 million, -45%)
No R-rated comedy competition could help, but the passing of Valentine's Day and sharing date night crowds with Isn't it Romantic will cut into overall business.
#7: Happy Death Day 2U ($5.5 million, -44%)
With solid reception from audiences and no added horror flicks opening this weekend, I would expect a solid (for its genre) hold for this sequel. However, I don't think its' going to make up much ground to its' predecessor.
#8: The Upside ($4 million, -29%)
The audience favorite should earn another weekend in the list as older audiences continue to come out in droves slowly.
#9: Cold Pursuit ($3.5 million, -42%)
Thankfully, a lack of any new R-rated action flicks should keep Liam Neeson afloat in the Top 10 for another week.
#10: Green Book ($2.2 million, -20%)
With the Oscars due to be handed out on Sunday (and a strong chance for a Best Supporting Actor Oscar win), this will likely be another strong hold for this historical drama.
