Thanksgiving weekend is here, which means more for everyone. Every film usually benefits pretty well from the extended holiday weekend. This year, overall business should be ahead of this same weekend last year, which featured the debut of Pixar's Coco.
Here is the predicted Top 10 (my predictions are for the 5-day stretch):
#1: Ralph Breaks the Internet ($70 million)
Disney always has something up their sleeves for Thanksgiving, and this year, it's a sequel to their 2012 hit Wreck it Ralph ($190 million stateside, $500 million worldwide). This is Disney Animation's first sequel in nearly 30 years (The Rescuers Down Under was their first and only real sequel back in 1990, the other sequels were made by a different animation studio). But, in the meantime, the goodwill and fanfare of the first film, plus the timely subject matter (the internet) and the appearances of many Disney characters will bring in a lot of families. The only possible drawback is that the internet focus may not be of much interest for older moviegoers. Also, while Ralph was well-received, its' not as strong of a property as other Disney classics. I would expect a 5-day opening in line with last year's Coco.
#2: Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald ($36 million, -42%)
Whether or not this holds well is a good question. Word-of-mouth is leaning towards mixed at this point. But, the extended frame should allow this installment to not drop above 50%.
#3: Creed II ($33 million)
Another sequel is opening this weekend, but to an entirely different film. 2015 brought the wildly successful spiritual successor to Rocky, which also earned a little bit of awards season attention. This sequel has earned very solid buzz heading into its release. While it might be a stretch for it to match its' predecessors' $43 million 5-day launch, I think a low-30's millions launch should be fairly attainable.
#4: The Grinch ($28 million, -27%)
The one who stole Christmas will have some of its business stolen by Wreck-it Ralph. But it should still pull in very solid numbers over the holiday weekend.
#5: Instant Family ($14.5 million, -1%)
Some movies (usually the ones that have strong word-of-mouth) pull in about the same as last weekend over the 5-day extended frame. I think this movie will be one of those.
#6: Bohemian Rhapsody ($13.5 million, -14%)
The Queen biopic should continue to pull in very solid business over the extended frame.
#7: Robin Hood ($12 million)
Another reboot or remake no audience seemed to want? Yup, that's this movie. Distributor Lionsgate doesn't seem to have much faith in this movie. It was supposed to launch in September but got moved to Thanksgiving earlier this year. While buzz isn't incredibly atrocious per se, its' just not enough to stand out either. Low-teens looks likely here, followed by a quick fade from theaters (unless reviews or word-of-mouth turns out better than expected).
#8: Widows ($11 million, -11%)
There doesn't seem to be any real legitimate options for older adults this weekend. That and the Oscar buzz should point to a strong hold for the Steve McQueen thriller.
#9: A Star is Born ($4 million, -9%)
A lack of added competition for females will also help this remake continue to play strong, even after its decline last week.
#10: Green Book ($3.5 million)
Expanding to 1,000 locations, this possible awards season contender looks to bring in the African-American crowd as well as history fans. After averaging $12,000 per theater in 25 locations last week, I think a $3,000 per-venue average should be reasonable here. It might be enough to get into the list as well.
