After a record-smashing October, the holiday movie season looks to get off to a more muted start. Overall, the combined strength of the three new releases probably won't be enough to top this same weekend last year. That weekend featured the debut of Thor: Ragnarok, which rocketed to a $123 million opening weekend.
#1: Bohemian Rhapsody ($34 million)
Buzz has been rising in recent weeks for the anticipated biopic of Queen lead singer Freddie Mercury. Maybe not to the level of the recent A Star is Born, but still relatively solid by all means. With the recent surge in interest in musical productions (traditional or not), plus the strong fanbase of Queen and Mercury, it could lead to a much-needed financial win for 20th Century Fox.
#2: The Nutcracker and the Four Realms ($23 million)
Meanwhile, Disney is looking at a rare film missing the #1 spot this weekend. That being said, its' not for a lack of trying. They've marketed the heck out of this adaptation of Tchaikovsky's classic. And now the hope is that it will find strong holding power through the holidays. But Nutcracker's overall level of buzz and anticipation reminds me of another PG fantasy, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader. That film only managed a $24 million start, but would hold on strong enough to get above $100 million. With competition from The Grinch and Fantastic Beasts 2 for the older ones in the coming weeks, that may not be possible here.
#3: Nobody's Fool ($15 million)
This Tyler Perry film has one secret ingredient: Tiffany Haddish, of course! The up and coming comedienne enjoyed solid numbers for both Night School and Girls Trip. Of course, the combination of both Perry and Haddish could make for a potent counter-programming combination. The only drawback here is that an R rating could limit its audience. But, I believe this will benefit from its' core African-American audience turning up.
#4: Halloween ($12 million, -63%)
With the titular holiday come and gone by this point, its' pretty likely that business will sink back down to earth for this reboot. However, that doesn't detract from any of its' massive success, as the 17-day gross will be past $150 million by this point.
#5: A Star is Born ($9 million, -36%)
Bohemian Rhapsody may provide some competition this weekend, but the Oscar buzz should keep this remake going strong in its fifth frame.
#6: Venom ($5.5 million, -49%)
While added competition for families with young kids doesn't help, Venom at least doesn't have any real competition to deal with for its' tween and teen-targeted audience. That should help this anti-hero flick from having a precipitous drop.
#7: The Hate U Give ($4 million, -22%)
The strong word-of-mouth and potential Oscar buzz, plus little other options out there for mature adults should help this title continue to have strong holding power.
#8: Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween ($3.5 million, -53%)
Halloween passing plus a new film aimed at family crowds means that this sequel probably won't manage to have the post-Halloween holding power of its' predecessor.
#9: Hunter Killer ($3.2 million, -52%)
Let's just face it, there hasn't been any real chatter for this flick. Despite a solid response from audiences, there's too many other appealing options to keep this from holding well.
#10: First Man ($3 million, -39%)
The Neil Armstrong biopic will continue to level off at a moderate rate, just enough to keep a Top 10 spot for one more week.
