Overall business looks to perk up a little from last weekend, and track ahead of this same weekend last year, which featured a narrow win for Kingsman: The Golden Circle ($17 million) over holdover It ($16.9 million) and Tom Cruise's American Made ($16.8 million).
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Smallfoot ($30 million)
Tracking has been getting stronger for this animated tale, which is the first real option for younger moviegoers since Christopher Robin, and the first real broadly-marketed animated flick since Hotel Transylvania 3. Marketing has been strong, and the concept seems unique enough to draw interest. The only thing working against Smallfoot is that animated films that open in September rarely really ever break out. The only exception to this rule has been the Hotel Transylvania films. And Warner Animation is 0-for-2 so far after The LEGO Ninjago Movie and Storks both only earned $20 million in their opening weekends. Considering the strong tracking I'm seeing though, this could break that streak.
#2: Night School ($23 million)
Kevin Hart and up-and-coming comedian Tiffany Haddish co-star in this PG-13 comedy that's hoping to bring in wide appeal. The rating plus both stars being solid draws could mean strong business. However, buzz has been noticeably lacking for this title. It is important for me to note also that the African-American audience has been relatively under-served as of late. If that is the case, they could come out in droves and over-index business here. 2015's The Perfect Guy is an ideal example, as it tracked in the low-teens before breaking out to a $26 million debut. Overall, this is worth keeping a close eye on.
#3: The House with a Clock in its Walls ($14 million, -48%)
Overall word-of-mouth seems down the middle for this PG horror flick. That plus direct competition for younger kids will keep House from having a strong hold this weekend (despite Halloween season only just getting underway).
#4: A Simple Favor ($7 million, -33%)
Does anyone see any competition for women this weekend? Not really. So, this should hold well again.
#5: H*** Fest ($5.5 million)
Right now, I don't see any signs of this being a breakout. CBS Films is trying to take advantage of horror movie season here, but there's been little awareness or buzz. In fact, I would not be surprised if this forecast was too generous.
#6: The Nun ($5 million, -52%)
Added horror competition from the movie charted above this will likely keep the Conjuring flick from dropping less than 50%.
#7: Crazy Rich Asians ($4.5 million, -31%)
No competition for the date night crowd means that this film will continue to play strong in in its seventh weekend.
#8: The Predator ($4 million, -54%)
Word-of-mouth seems stale for this latest reboot, which looks likely to have another heavy drop in its third weekend.
#9: White Boy Rick ($3 million, -40%)
With not many options for older adults, look for this true story drama to have one of the weekend's better holds.
#10: Peppermint ($2.3 million, -38%)
Jennifer Garner's latest should have enough stamina left to hold onto a spot in the Top 10.
Also opening in 600 locations is a modern-day retelling of Louisa May Alcott's Little Women. With little marketing, I am not expecting this to get past $1.5 million in its debut. But, if it manages to pull in more fans of the literary novel, there's always a chance it could overperform and get into the list.
