It's set to be another jam-packed weekend, with three more sequels joining the fray. Overall business is looking to trail last year, however, which featured the one-two punch of Dunkirk ($50 million) and Girls Trip ($31 million), plus Valerian's $17 million debut.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again ($30 million)
This is one of those sequels whose existence may not make much sense (as the Broadway musical never had a sequel), but its' pulling in some pretty strong buzz. There's also two major things working in its' favor. One, there's been little to no options for females and older audiences this summer (Ocean's 8 will exit the list this week). Secondly (thanks partially to The Greatest Showman), musicals have been a hot ticket at the box office lately. The original Mamma Mia! opened 10 years ago to $27 million, and the musical remains popular today. I can see this inching up a little due to ticket price inflation (strong early reviews will help too).
#2: Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation ($25.5 million, -42%)
Zero competition for families, plus solid word-of-mouth should add up to a solid sophomore hold. This might end up being a bit low for a weekend projection.
#3: The Equalizer 2 ($21 million)
Sony will have the second and third place movies this weekend. Right now, I'm divided to almost pessimistic as to whether or not the Denzel Washington sequel will be a success story. It's entering a crowded market for action flicks (despite being the only R-rated actioner in the market). And despite Washington's bankability and the strong marketing effort, the overall buzz here has been pretty quiet. The first Equalizer opened to a better-than-expected $34 million back in 2014, on its way past the century mark. I don't see similar results here (negative reviews aren't going to help either).
#4: Ant-Man and the Wasp ($17 million, -41%)
Luckily for Marvel's latest film, none of this weekend's new releases pose any threat here (Equalizer 2 is rated R). So, yes, this one should level off quite nicely this weekend. Beyond this weekend is what is really questionable at this point.
#5: Skyscraper ($14 million, -44%)
Equalizer 2's R rating will also benefit Dwayne Johnson, as Skyscraper should benefit from a lack of added PG-13 action movie competition. Plus, audiences seem to enjoy this much better than critics are, which might be an encouraging sign.
#6: Incredibles 2 ($11 million, -33%)
Now that Hotel Transylvania has already debuted, Incredibles 2 should have a nice hold this weekend.
#7: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($9.5 million, -41%)
A lack of any real competition this weekend (hence the R rating for the action sequel opening) should permit the Jurassic World sequel to continue holding well.
#8: Unfriended: Dark Web ($7.5 million)
This is a unique situation, as the distributor changed for this sequel (Universal released the original Unfriended, while Blumhouse takes this one solo as the former already has a movie opening this weekend). Early reviews are fairly decent so far. But there are three problems that will likely keep it from breaking out. One, another horror flick is still pulling in audiences. Two, buzz is quiet. Third, theater count is limited to 1,500 locations. Altogether, I think this prediction might be a tad generous. But, we'll see.
#9: The First Purge ($4.5 million, -52%)
Thanks to added competition from another horror sequel, this prequel will likely fall harder than last weekend.
#10: Sorry to Bother You ($4 million, TBD)
Depending on whether or not this movie continues to expand, I would expect a weekend either the same or a little higher than last weekend. It could very well take ninth place if it jumps higher than anticipated.
