It's 4th of July week, which means many films will be boosted in terms of gross over this week. The lone exception is the film likely to take #1 over the weekend, which will open Friday (4th lands today). Overall business will not be an apples-to-apples comparison, especially considering the 4th was counted into the end of June weekend last year. But, for after July 4th, it will be down some from last year, which had the $117 million debut of Spider-Man: Homecoming.
Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: Ant-Man and the Wasp ($79 million)
Marvel's third and final film of 2018 has a lot going for it. Strong marketing, strong reviews (89% on Rotten Tomatoes), great buzz, and enough space from previous blockbusters to get a good audience (though the one-two punch of Jurassic World and Incredibles will hold it down some). The first Ant-Man was more of a modest success for Marvel, opening to $58 million before holding well the remainder of the summer (earning $175 million and $500 million worldwide). Most Marvel sequels tend to improve some from their predecessors. This should not be much different. Just don't expect anywhere near Black Panther (which was a cultural phenomenon) and especially not Infinity War.
#2: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($28 million, -53%)
The addition of another family-accessible option in movie theaters points to another 50% drop for the latest in the Jurassic franchise. However, the 4th of July being on Wednesday will allow it to earn stronger-than-normal business during the week to make up for any shortfalls this weekend brings.
#3: Incredibles 2 ($26.5 million, -42%)
The gap continues to close between this one and Jurassic, and the fact that this is also a Disney release could lead to this taking second place. For now, though, the competition from a fellow Disney release may keep this one from holding as strong as word-of-mouth might suggest.
#4: The First Purge ($20 million, $35 million 5-day)
This is a difficult one to predict, as it opens today (July 4th). But this franchise has definitely proven popular among horror flicks (and the domestic gross has actually grown with each installment, which Election Year pulling in nearly $80 million back in 2016). Buzz, however, has seemed more muted this time around (reviews are also not out yet, perhaps a bad sign?). That being said, a lack of any real horror flicks this summer definitely is a strong sign. Look for a strong Wednesday and Thursday, followed by more modest business over the weekend.
#5: Sicario: Day of the Soldado ($10 million, -47%)
Added competition plus mixed audience reception doesn't necessarily point to a leggy run for this action flick.
#6: Uncle Drew ($9 million, -42%)
I'm divided on how to predict this one. Drew could go in one of two directions. First, the "A" CinemaScore and unique option could help it be a leggy hit. But, secondly, it could very well also play like similar African-American-driven films and be extremely frontloaded. I'm going to aim for the middle here.
#7: Ocean's 8 ($5.5 million, -32%)
Once again, there's no female-driven films opening in theaters this weekend. That points to another strong hold here for the ensemble crime caper.
#8: Tag ($3.5 million, -38%)
There's more comedies in the marketplace, that's true. But, none are rated R, which will play out to this one's advantage for sure.
#9: Deadpool 2 ($2 million, -43%)
Another superhero film entering the marketplace could spell run-ending news for the Merc with a Mouth. But, Ant-Man's more family-friendly focus could say otherwise here, which has me forecasting on the lighter side as far as declines are concerned.
#10: Won't You Be My Neighbor? ($1.5 million, -35%)
A few films will be competing for this spot. But, I'm giving the edge to this documentary, which could be expanding again in time for the holiday.
