As the summer season hits its mid-way point, business has continued to surge (with overall receipts 8% ahead of this same time last year). Overall business continues to look strong, even with no real breakout openers debuting this weekend. Look for business to either match or slightly outpace this same weekend last year, which featured the debut of Despicable Me 3 ($72 million).
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($64 million, -57%)
The first Jurassic World had a 49% drop in its second weekend, don't expect quite the same here. While word-of-mouth seems decent, sequels have even more of a tendency to drop. One thing that might end up helping alleviate the heavy drop is that there's no real added competition this weekend. Look for Fallen Kingdom to potentially get close to $1 billion worldwide by the end of this weekend, however.
#2: Incredibles 2 ($47.5 million, -41%)
This one should hold a lot better this weekend, as again, there's no added competition for kids and families. Word of mouth continues to be very positive, as the domestic gross looks to get close to $450 million in just three weeks. It will be the first animated movie to pass $500 million stateside by the end of the 4th of July stretch.
#3: Uncle Drew ($18 million)
I'm highballing this prediction because overall buzz and marketing for this flick has been very strong in recent weeks. It's a unique offering (a basketball comedy) and movies targeting African-Americans can tend to break out. Reviews have been down-the-middle so far (53% on Rotten Tomatoes), but that probably won't play much of a factor. Of course, the appeal of more mainstream options could also hold this one back. But I'm thinking it may overperform.
#4: Sicario: Day of the Soldado ($12 million)
This is a tough one to forecast. The first Sicario was an awards season contender and was essentially and independent release (it expanded from limited release). This is a more commercial outing, which makes predicting its opening a little more difficult. However, as an R rated flick, it will appeal more to older males. It also benefits from goodwill from the first Sicario, which was very well-received. Reviews are solid too (72% on Rotten Tomatoes). However, overall buzz and enthusiasm are pretty weak. I'm thinking low-teens with some room for upside, but the R rating will also hold it back from really breaking out.
#5: Ocean's Eight ($8.5 million, -26%)
Why am I predicting such a strong hold for this ensemble? One reason. The top four movies all are aimed at families or men, not women. That will prove to be a strong advantage for this flick going into the weekend.
#6: Tag ($5 million, -39%)
There is some added comedy competition, but none that are R-rated. That will affect Tag a little bit, but not very much.
#7 (tie): Deadpool 2 ($3 million, -43%)
The addition of another comedy and another R-rated action thriller could possibly cause a heavy drop here as the Merc with a Mouth begins to wrap up its run.
#7 (tie): Solo: A Star Wars Story ($3 million, -34%)
Also about to wrap its run, Solo should get one more solid hold as there's no additional competition for its audience.
#9: Hereditary ($2 million, -45%)
A lack of any real horror pics (that will change next weekend) will keep this one moving toward a solid finish.
#10: Avengers: Infinity War ($1.8 million, -31%)
Marvel fans will get one more weekend with this blockbuster before Ant-Man and the Wasp debuts next Friday. Look for a better-than-normal hold as audiences catch up before it leaves.
