This weekend looks to be a huge one, with the one-two punch of a guaranteed smash and last weekend's big opener. Overall business looks to charge ahead of this same weekend last year, which was led by the muted debut of Transformers: The Last Knight ($44.7 million 3-day, $68.5 million 5-day).
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($135 million)
Three years after the first Jurassic World shattered the opening weekend record, its sequel is hoping to have similar success. Distributor Universal has pushed this movie heavily, and has already opened the film overseas over the past two weeks (its earned a huge $372 million so far from around 75% of all territories, including a huge opening in China last week). However, overall buzz and excitement has been lacking somewhat. And reviews are down-the-middle (54% on Rotten Tomatoes as of this time). I'm shooting for the middle of expectations. There's a chance it could bump to $150 million if it pulls in more families to shoot ahead of expectations like the first World did. But, at the same time, it also could fall behind this number as families and general audiences are more swept up with another more well-received sequel.
#2: Incredibles 2 ($95 million, -47%)
After smashing the animation record last weekend, the sequel looks to have an understandably heavy drop (especially with another blockbuster in town). However, word-of-mouth (save for all the talk about the strobe lighting) has been great, and this is the kind of family movie that will play well over the coming weeks. I would expect a hold similar to Toy Story 3 (-46%).
#3: Ocean's Eight ($11 million, -42%)
A lack of added competition for its female audience should allow the ensemble crime pic to hold better this weekend.
#4: Tag ($8 million, -46%)
Whether or not this holds well will depend on how much of its audience was the male demographic (the ones that will likely flock to see Fallen Kingdom).
#5: Deadpool 2 ($5 million, -43%)
There's one reason why this will likely dodge a heavy drop. Its' rated R (Fallen Kingdom is PG-13).
#6: Solo: A Star Wars Story ($4.5 million, -55%)
This will likely drop quite a bit as it has extra PG-13 competition from certain dinosaurs.
The Rest of the Top 10:
#7: Hereditary ($3.5 million, -50%)
Superfly ($3.5 million, -50%)
#9: Avengers: Infinity War ($2.5 million, -54%)
#10: Won't You Be My Neighbor? ($2 million, expanding)
