10 years....19 movies. Wow. What a run, and a run that won't likely end anytime soon. Marvel's juggernaut Avengers: Infinity War arrives tonight. The expectations for the film are sky-high, with Disney expecting $210 million plus. That would be the biggest Marvel opening in history, ahead of 2012's The Avengers ($207 million), 2015's Avengers Age of Ultron ($191 million), 2016's Captain America: Civil War ($179 million) and earlier this year's Black Panther ($202 million 3-day). It also would rank as the third-highest opening weekend ever behind Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($220 million) and Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($248 million).
There are some analysts who believe Infinity War could top Force Awakens for the biggest opening of all-time stateside. But, that's going to be challenging. Force Awakens was the first Star Wars movie in 10 years, so the novelty and nostalgia-infused excitement isn't really here. That being said, the promise of this being a culmination of 10 years of storytelling could propel it (not to mention the Guardians of the Galaxy joining the fray).
It seemed like up until recently the MCU had peaked. Age of Ultron and Civil War only ended up with 2/3 of the original Avengers $623 million domestic gross ($459 million and $408 million, respectively, still huge numbers for both however). That perspective changed when Black Panther shattered expectations. His inclusion here (and the movie still likely to be in the Top 10 in its 11th weekend) will bring more of an audience here. Also, Thor: Ragnarok and Spider-Man: Homecoming are still fresh in people's minds, and the inclusion of Thor and Spider-Man (as well as the Guardians and Doctor Strange) in the promos will help keep interest as well.
Reviews have been very good, if not quite as strong as the best Marvel efforts (86% on Rotten Tomatoes as of now). But the fact that reviews are very good will help keep mainstream audiences on board. Opening with the second-widest theater count in history (4,474, only behind Despicable Me 3's 4,529 from last year), the industry is certainly prepared. I'm going to aim for a debut just under Force with a $240 million prediction.
As for the rest of the Top 10, it's hard for me to forecast especially since a movie this big will likely cause catastrophe for them. A Quiet Place should take second, with a chance at hitting $10 million in its fourth weekend. I Feel Pretty will likely compete for third with Rampage, which is likely to take the hardest tumble of the whole list due to the direct competition. With no other openers daring to open against the Avengers, Super Troopers 2 is likely to round out the Top 5. But after the fans rushed out to see it last week, it could too drop very hard this weekend.
I will have a special post on Avengers' Friday numbers Saturday morning, followed by its weekend gross Sunday.
