It is the calm before the Avengers storm, which will point to two things. It will be a relatively quiet frame, while most holdovers should see slightly stronger-than-normal holds as we get close to the possible record-smasher's release. Overall business could end up ahead of last year, however, when The Fate of the Furious remained on top of a weekend that had no real strong new releases (Disneynature's Born in China was the top new release this same weekend last year).
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: A Quiet Place ($21.5 million, -35%)
Strong word-of-mouth and the overall strong reception give this horror sensation a great chance at reclaiming the top spot in its third weekend. Passing $100 million last weekend, its proving a rare small-budget success.
#2: Rampage ($19 million, -47%)
Thanks to Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, Rampage avoided bomb territory by matching expectations. With Avengers around the corner, Warner Bros. will have to hope for a strong hold this weekend and then hope audiences catch back up with it after the Marvel juggernaut's opening weekend. At this point, it could dip a little below 50% based on word-of-mouth, but I'm not expecting a strong hold by any means.
#3: I Feel Pretty ($16 million)
The romantic comedy has been marketed fairly strong over the coming weeks, but overall buzz and awareness has been modest to date. Amy Schumer has had success beforehand with Trainwreck, but she isn't considered a must-see among comedians today. The PG-13 teen-friendly rating and original concept could be a cause for this to exceed expectations. But I'm hanging more towards the middle here, and more towards an opening in line with Schumer's last film, Snatched ($15 million).
#4: Truth or Dare ($9.5 million, -49%)
The strong debut last weekend notwithstanding, the negative critical reception and mixed "B-" CinemaScore are helping this particular film trend more towards holding like a standard horror flick. Additional competition for older teenage girls (which were the highest demographic last weekend) with I Feel Pretty won't help either.
#5: Ready Player One ($7 million, -39%)
Many audiences will likely try to catch up with some older films with Avengers around the corner. For that reason, Ready Player One should hold well in its fourth frame.
#6: Blockers ($6 million, -45%)
While there's no R-rated competition, I Feel Pretty will probably cut into some of its comedy-driven audience.
#7 (tie): Super Troopers 2 ($4.5 million)
Fox Searchlight is making an interesting move here. A sequel to a cult comedy hit from 17 years (one I never personally heard of). The buzz is respectable considering that its' technically an independent release. I think this will settle close to $5 million, with a little room above or below perhaps.
#7 (tie): Isle of Dogs ($4.5 million, -18%)
Now in nationwide release, Wes Anderson's critically-adored animated flick should hold strong in the coming weeks, especially with very strong audience word-of-mouth.
#9: Black Panther ($4 million, -32%)
With the character about to appear again in Infinity War, Black Panther should continue bringing in audiences wildly anticipating the next Marvel film.
#10: I Can Only Imagine ($3 million, -27%)
A fairly quiet weekend should allow the faith-based hit to have one more weekend in the Top 10.
Also debuting nationwide this weekend is action thriller Traffik. However, buzz and awareness have been virtually silent for this particular flick. I am expecting a debut outside the Top 10 with around $2-2.5 million.
