Wednesday, April 4, 2018

Weekend Box Office Predictions for April 6-8, 2018.

For the first time in several weeks, this weekend stands a legitimate chance at matching this same weekend last year, which had The Boss Baby still on top. Here is my predicted Top 10:


#1: A Quiet Place ($30 million)

With a rare 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and very little options for horror movie fans this year, I have a strong feeling this will likely exceed expectations. Strong marketing on YouTube and television as well as a trailer in front of Star Wars: The Last Jedi adds extra awareness. On the downside, overall tracking has been relatively quiet. So my forecast could be a little over-hyped, but there's no denying the strong reception and positives I've listed here.


#2: Ready Player One ($22 million, -49%)

Right now, the jury is out on how the Steven Spielberg movie will hold in its second weekend. I'm going to shoot for a typical 50% slightly higher or slightly lower based on the word-of-mouth it is receiving.


#3: Blockers ($19 million)

The R-rated comedy is entering a marketplace where there hasn't been much out for adults in awhile (Game Night is about done with its run). Strong reviews (84% on Rotten Tomatoes) and strong marketing will also allow this to possibly attract more young adults. John Cena's presence doesn't hurt either as he expands his acting career. A debut around the same as Game Night looks likely.


#4: Acrimony ($8.5 million, -50%)

Tyler Perry movies are notorious for not having good holding power. The same should apply here.



#5: Black Panther ($7.5 million, -34%)

The Marvel blockbuster looks to keep chugging along in its eighth weekend in theaters.



#6: I Can Only Imagine ($7 million, -35%)

Easter may be over, but I don't see any reason why this faith-based hit should start to drop hard now. It should continue to benefit from strong word-of-mouth over the next few weeks.


#7: Pacific Rim: Uprising ($5.5 million, -40%)

The action sequel should stabilize this weekend thanks to Spring Break ending and no real competitors to take away its audience.


#8: Sherlock Gnomes ($5 million, -29%)

A lack of any real competition for families should allow this to hold together fairly well in its third weekend.


#9: Isle of Dogs ($4.5 million, expanding)

Expanding to nearly 500 locations on Friday, Wes Anderson's acclaimed stop-motion animated flick should jump up considerably from its $2.8 million gross last weekend.


#10: Chappaquiddick ($4 million)

Picking from the last two semi-wide releases, I'm going to go with the historical drama. Reviews are decent (64% on Rotten Tomatoes) and overall buzz is respectable for a minor release.

Also opening is sports drama The Miracle Season in semi-wide release. I'm predicting a $3 million start below the Top 10 based on the buzz patterns I am seeing.