It's Super Bowl weekend, which means business for all titles should considerably slow down with the big game taking America's attention on Sunday. Overall business should fall short of last year, which had Split narrowly outwit another horror flick, Rings for #1.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Maze Runner: The Death Cure ($11 million, -53%)
Young adult films usually don't hold very well. The addition of the super bowl distracting many teenagers and young adults won't help either.
#2: Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle ($10 million, -38%)
This might be a little too optimistic of a forecast, as its' held impeccably well through this point. But with males being its' target audience and the Super Bowl likely to distract them, I don't expect it to hold nearly as strong as the last few weekends.
#3: Winchester ($9 million)
The only new real nationwide release, this period horror flick has had decent buzz and marketing. However, reviews are absolutely disastrous (5% on Rotten Tomatoes), which will hold it back. However, Rings managed $13 million on this same weekend last year. Maybe I'm lowballing this.
#4: The Greatest Showman ($7 million, -27%)
Continued strong word-of-mouth and a generally female target audience will keep Showman rolling, for a seventh-straight weekend in the Top 5.
#5: The Post ($6 million, -34%)
Once again, the more focus on an older female audience along with the continued awards season buzz will help The Post continue put up strong numbers.
#6: Hostiles ($5.5 million, -46%)
The big game and a crowded marketplace will make it difficult for the Scott Cooper western to have much staying power.
#7 (tie): 12 Strong ($4.5 million, -48%)
Once again, a male target audience will be very distracted this weekend, which will not spell good news for the war thriller.
#7 (tie): The Shape of Water ($4.5 million, -24%)
With word continuing to get around for the 13-time Oscar nominated Guillermo del Toro fantasy, the film should continue to play strong into February.
#9: Den of Thieves ($4 million, -54%)
Same reason as the first movie in #7.
#10: Paddington 2 ($3.5 million, -39%)
Strong word-of-mouth plus zero competition for little kids and females should allow the sequel to have one more weekend in the Top 10.
In the meantime, I, Tonya is expanding to 1,500 locations this weekend. But with no Best Picture nomination and little awards season attention besides a likely win for Allison Janney for Best Supporting Actress, its not expected to make much of an impact. But it could increase enough to get into the list (it pulled in $3 million from 900 locations last week).
