Tuesday, January 2, 2018

New Year's Weekend Box Office: "Jumanji" Nearly Pulls Upset Over "Last Jedi", Others Play Well.

Overall business was up 3% from the year-end weekend last year when Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Sing led the box office.

It was closer than expected, but Disney and Lucasfilm managed to hold on to the #1 spot for a third-straight week with Star Wars: The Last Jedi. The latest in a series of blockbusters didn't have a strong hold by any means for the holiday stretch, down 26% over New Year's Weekend to $52.7 million ($68.5 million including New Year's Day Monday). In 18 days, the middle chapter of the current trilogy has earned $533.1 million. Its' about to pass Rogue One's $534 million final domestic gross, but its' trailing way behind The Force Awakens, which had earned $744 million through this same point. It's clear from here that word-of-mouth isn't incredibly strong for this installment (audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is at just 50%). What is also clear is that the overseas gross continues to be strong, with the worldwide numbers passing $1 billion over the weekend. Wherever Last Jedi finishes, it will still be a massive success for all involved. However, it won't come anywhere near Force Awakens' $930 million domestic gross or $2 billion final worldwide gross.


Repeating at #2 but coming so close to actually upsetting the Force, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle played very strong with families and teens over Christmas break. The Dwayne Johnson/Kevin Hart flick was up a very solid 38% from Christmas weekend to $50.4 million ($66.5 million including New Year's Day Monday). The action flick has pulled in a spectacular $185.8 million in just 12 days, way ahead of where anyone expected. Jumanji is ahead of Sing through the same point, and if it continues to hold well into January, could very well flirt with $300 million stateside. This is clearly the surprise hit of the last couple of months, and one that distributor Sony needed badly (they passed $1 billion for the year over the weekend). Jumanji is also a hit overseas, with nearly $350 million worldwide so far and no China release yet.

On the other hand, Pitch Perfect 3 was down from its' Christmas opening. The final installment in the Bellas trilogy was down 16% to $16.8 million ($21 million including Monday), for a meh $67.5 million gross in 11 days. That's about what Pitch Perfect 2 earned in its opening weekend ($69 million). It's clear the competition and a lack of interest in a third movie have played an effect on this movie. At its' current pace, this third installment should wind up around $100 million. That's pretty good against a $45 million budget, but as I said before, distributor Universal I'm sure wanted this franchise to end differently.

While one music fest didn't quite click, another appears to be really clicking with audiences. After a mediocre start last weekend, families caught up with The Greatest Showman. The Hugh Jackman musical was up a fantastic 77% from last weekend to $15.6 million ($20.8 million including Monday). The 11-day gross is at an OK $54.3 million. This played pretty well through the Christmas stretch, and is benefiting from great word-of-mouth (despite a 55% Rotten Tomatoes critics score, the audience score is a rousing 90% positive). It also got off to a decent start overseas. This is one that bears watching over the next month to see how it holds.

Fox has two movies in the Top 5 this weekend, the second being their animated flick Ferdinand. Clearly taking advantage of kids on Christmas break, the book adaptation was up 56% from last weekend to $11.4 million ($14.6 million including Monday). However, in 18 days, the gross is a mediocre $56.8 million. The Blue Sky Studios release should hold OK through MLK Weekend, before finishing likely around $80-85 million. Against a budget of $111 million, the film is going to need some major overseas power to break even (so far its' earned $70 million overseas).

Disney and Pixar continued to roll with their Day of the Dead flick Coco. The critically-adored flick was up 39% to $7.5 million ($9.7 million including Monday), for a very good $182.1 million gross in six weekends of release. With MLK Weekend likely to help it a little further, Coco should ultimately make it past $200 million stateside. Worldwide, it passed $500 million (and is posting record numbers for Pixar in China at a stunning $175 million).

Following a modest Christmas Day debut, All the Money in the World jumped up to seventh place over New Year's Weekend, with arguably mediocre results. The Ridley Scott thriller (which made headlines for a last-minute swap of Kevin Spacey for Christopher Plummer) earned $5.6 million over the weekend ($7.5 million including Monday). In seven days, it has earned $14.7 million, against a $50 million budget. Unless it picks up some love from the Golden Globes (its' nominated for three), its' hard to imagine this playing for very long.

Faring a lot better in a semi-nationwide expansion was Winston Churchill biopic Darkest Hour. The historical drama was up 41% from Christmas weekend to $5.5 million ($7.7 million including Monday), for a $20.2 million gross since its' limited debut six weeks ago. It's likely this will continue playing through January in the Top 10, with the Golden Globes and Oscar nominations just around the corner.

The two most notable flops of the Christmas stretch rounded out the Top 10. Downsizing was off 5% from it's Christmas opening to $4.7 million ($6.1 million including Monday), for a weak $18.6 million pick-up in 11 days. The Matt Damon/Alexander Payne film should finish around $25 million, a disastrous result considering its $68 million budget. Faring even worse was Father Figures, which was up 16% to $3.8 million ($5.1 million including Monday), but has earned only $14.1 million in 11 days, with the final gross likely to just reach $20 million.

And that's about it for this weekend. Next weekend, the New Year begins with a horror flick (as usual), and holdovers brace for a return-to-normal. Predictions coming on Wednesday.