Weekend Box Office Predictions for December 15-17, 2017.

Here is the projected Top 10: This weekend is set to be one of the biggest ever....thanks to....

#1: Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($215 million)

Yes, the scroll credits, the Millennium Falcon, the light-sabers, and all that jazz are back as audiences flock to theaters in droves for Star Wars: The Last Jedi. The galaxy far, far away has become a tradition for distributor Disney now to release right before Christmas the last three years (though Solo: A Star Wars Story will break that tradition next May, even with directorial issues). So, far that has paid off mightily. The Force Awakens shattered box office records in 2015, while Rogue One was also a blockbuster last year (they opened to $248 million and $155 million, respectfully).

The big question is, how will Last Jedi fare? Now, with the immediate excitement from fans watered down from Force Awakens, it would be unfair to expect this one to top it's predecessors' opening weekend. It should ease a little bit (especially with tracking and buzz behind its predecessor). But, anticipation is still stronger than most movies nowadays. I'm going to guess a sequel drop close to the likes of Avengers: Age of Ultron (around 10% off) should be expected, followed by an easy stay on top of the box office for at least three more weeks after that. Strong reviews help too.

#2: Ferdinand ($16 million)

It's tough to go up against Star Wars. Fox and Blue Sky Studios (who are, ironically, being acquired by Disney, the owner of that franchise) are attempting to bring in tykes too young for light sabers with this adaptation of the classic children's book. Early reviews are very good, which should help definitely. This will more or less be more of a slow burn, as kids will see it more over Christmas break. Even better news, family films normally earn 5 to 7 times their opening weekend when opening at this time of year.


#3: Coco ($10 million, -46%)

The combined competition from Star Wars and Ferdinand spells bad news for Disney and Pixar's latest. But, Christmas break should allow it to try and make up ground.


#4: Wonder ($5 million, -41%)

This one should hold OK in the face of the competition thanks to strong word-of-mouth and broader appeal among adults not interested in animated fare or lightsabers.


#5: The Disaster Artist ($4.5 million, -30%)

Expanding to a little over 1,000 locations, this should also dodge losing a lot of audience (especially considering the older audience).


#6: Justice League ($4 million, -59%)

This will likely get hit the hardest by Star Wars.


#7 (tie): Daddy's Home 2 ($3 million, -49%)

The comedy sequel looks to pass $100 million this weekend.


#7 (tie): Murder on the Orient Express ($3 million, -42%)

Appeal with older audiences should allow Express to have one of the stronger holds of the list.



#9 (tie): Thor: Ragnarok ($2.5 million, -60%)

As expected, with Star Wars stealing over 1,000 of its' screens this weekend, Disney and Marvel's latest will probably have one of the hardest falls of the list.


#9 (tie): Lady Bird ($2.5 million, -34%)

With multiple Golden Globe nominations earlier this week, Lady Bird should continue holding strong.


Also, The Star could remain in the Top 10 if the Christmas theme continues to work out strong holds, But, competition from Ferdinand is not going to help it (it also lost over 1,000 screens). One other title to keep an eye on is awards contender The Shape of Water, which earned the most Golden Globe nominations out of any title this past week. It's only playing in around 125 locations, but the per-venue average could be strong enough to get it into the list.