With so many movies opening this weekend (including Christmas Day), the box office is getting an interesting overhaul. Here is my predicted Top 10:
#1: Star Wars - The Last Jedi ($90 million, -59%)
With Christmas Eve a dead zone for movies (and landing on a Sunday), it would be very unfair to have The Last Jedi have the same hold as The Force Awakens' second weekend (39%). Instead, look for the film to have stronger numbers over next week and next weekend (though divided fan reception may or may not help). The 10-day total will approach $400 million.
#2: Pitch Perfect 3 ($33 million)
With a strong $2.1 million in Thursday previews, the third and final entry in the Bellas trilogy is on pace to earn very solid numbers. Now, this obviously does not compare well with Pitch Perfect 2's monster $69 million start two and a half years ago. At the same time, however, that one was a summer release, so it's not a direct apples-to-apples comparison. The threequel should have a very solid run.
#3: Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle ($30 million)
This remake started off very strong on Wednesday and Thursday, with nearly $15 million picked up so far. Look for a strong Friday and Saturday before falling apart a little on Sunday. But, this is another film that will benefit massively from next week and next weekend. Very solid reviews (79% on Rotten Tomatoes) will help as well.
#4: The Greatest Showman ($11 million)
Hugh Jackman's P.T. Barnum flick is getting off to a slow start, pulling in $4.6 million in its first two days. That compares favorably with 2011's The Adventures of Tintin, which pulled in $4.7 million in its first two days on its way to a $14.4 million five-day start. But that movie had Christmas Eve land on a Saturday, which means Showman should be able to hold itself together a little better. Reviews are down the middle (50% on Rotten Tomatoes), but the PG rating should allow for strong holding power over the next week and a half.
#5: Ferdinand ($9.5 million, -29%)
With two more movies aimed at family crowds opening, normally this would spell disaster for Ferdinand. However, the Christmas season is kind to all films, so expect this to have a decent slide.
#6: Downsizing ($9 million)
Supposed to be an awards contender, this Alexander Payne dramedy has been hurt by mixed reception from critics (53% on Rotten Tomatoes). It might be a decent choice for adults, but this is more likely to get lost in the midst of all the bigger movies.
#7: Father Figures ($7.5 million)
Another smaller film likely to get lost (especially with competition from Downsizing), this R-rated comedy hopes to be in the same boat as last year's Why Him?, which had a decent performance ($60 million finish). But, awareness seems low for the Owen Wilson, Ed Helms comedy, and reviews are atrocious (14% on Rotten Tomatoes).
#8: Coco ($6.5 million, -34%)
Disney and Pixar look to stay in the Top 10 through New Year's as their latest will try to scratch and claw past $200 million domestically.
#9: Wonder ($3.5 million, -33%)
Starting to lose screens but likely to remain a solid moneymaker during the Christmas/New Year's stretch.
#10: Darkest Hour ($3 million)
Expanding to 700 locations, the potential Oscar contender looks to possibly earn very solid numbers over the Christmas frame. Gary Oldman is a current frontrunner for the Best Actor Oscar.
