Monday, January 1, 2018

2018 Movie Preview, By Studio.

So, I am going to take a different approach this year to previewing 2018 for movies. I will still have a separate post about predicting the Top 10 movies of 2018. But for this post, I will be looking at what each studio has to offer, and how they will fare in 2018:


Sony

Sony's 2018 looks fairly solid. After struggling the past few years (they did pass $1 billion in 2017 though), they have at least a few promising titles out of their 14 movie slate. The strongest title on the list right now looks to be Spider-Man spin-off Venom (October 5). The villain is one of the most popular in the Spider-Man universe, and it stars action star Tom Hardy. It could be a strong player over the Fall season. Speaking of Spider-Man, Sony Animation has an animated entry that also looks very strong, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (December 14). With a different iteration of the character plus some appealing animation, it looks to possibly be a late-year breakout.

Other promising titles include Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly's modernization of the Sherlock Holmes story Holmes and Watson (November 14), animated threequel Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (though I'm a little puzzled by the July 13 release date, but it should still do well), and Denzel Washington action sequel The Equalizer 2 (August 3).

In the middle to possible flop territory involves Peter Rabbit (February 9, who's trailer has been negatively-received). Also possible disappointments include action film Alpha (September 14), and a sequel that no one seems to want, Sicario 2: Soldado (June 29).

Wild cards include Taraji P. Henson's thriller Proud Mary (could be a possible sleeper on January 12), Biblical biopic Paul, Apostle of Christ (March 28), and adult book adaptation The Girl in the Spider's Web (October 19). Horror flick Cadaver could be a repeat of Don't Breathe (though a late-August release usually spells bad news, August 24). And there's very little known about action thriller Slenderman (May 18).

Meanwhile, Sony has a sequel to Goosebumps on the calendar for October 12.  But with script issues and no filming started, its likely to get bumped to 2019.  Also, Sony's upcoming adaptation of Barbie (starring Anne Hathaway) has also yet to roll before cameras, so it probably won't meet its' August 8 release date.


Lionsgate

Lionsgate's relatively quiet 13-film slate once again doesn't show much potential here. There's no movie that resembles a Hunger Games size success or even a surprise like Wonder. Ultimately, Lionsgate's safest bets in 2018 are all anchored by one man: Tyler Perry. First, a drama titled Acrimony (March 30). Second, a new Madea film titled A Madea Family Funeral (a prime August 3 release date should bode well).

In the middle, Lionsgate has an upcoming remake of Robin Hood (September 21) starring Taron Edgerton. They also have an animated effort from British house Aardman called Early Man (February 16), which could break out due to a lack of competition. Liam Neeson starts off the year with action flick The Commuter (January 12), which could do solid business if reviews are strong. Lionsgate is also releasing the faith-based I Can Only Imagine (March 16), which may or may not succeed.

Mila Kunis and Kate McKinnon's action comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me (August 3) could be a wild card over the summer. A couple of horror films, Winchester: The House That Ghosts Built (February 2) and H***fest (October 12) could be possible hits if they click with the horror audience. Besides that, everything else on Lionsgate's slate is virtually unknown at this point.


Paramount

With just 10 films on the slate, the good news is Paramount's slate in 2018 looks better than 2017. The bad news is they still look to be lagging in the back of the pack. They have two likely winners. First is Tom Cruise's highly-anticipated Mission: Impossible VI (July 27), which could be a late-summer blockbuster. Second is spin-off Bumblebee (December 21), which will try to combat franchise fatigue for the Transformers franchise.

In the middle, Paramount releases another entry in their successful Cloverfield franchise with an untitled movie set for February 2 (if a trailer drops soon enough). Meanwhile, John Krasinski and Emily Blunt hope to have a success with semi-horror flick A Quiet Place (April 6). Johnny Knoxville also returns with action comedy Action Point, which may or may not do well dependent on its March 23 release date.

Paramount actually has two films out that weekend, the second being the animated sequel Gnomeo and Juliet: Sherlock Gnomes. The first film isn't well-remembered by animation fans (even though it did relatively solid business), so don't expect the sequel to really hit the sweet spot for family audiences. Sci-fi flick Annihilation also doesn't look to break out (February 23), even with Natalie Portman in the lead role. Finally, sci-fi/zombie thriller Overlord will likely struggle in its October 26 release.

It's important to note Paramount also has an untitled event film slated for November 2. It may or may not see the light of day though.


20th Century Fox

Fox's situation is very unique, as they have just been acquired by Disney. But their 2018 slate is very promising, with possibly even stronger results than 2017. Most of their 13-movie slate looks decent. The strongest entries are three Marvel flicks. The X-Men franchise attempts to go darker with The New Mutants (April 13) generating strong buzz. June brings the highly-anticipated sequel Deadpool 2 (June 1), as its' predecessor managed to earn a stunning $365 million stateside. November then brings X-Men: Dark Phoenix (November 2), which should perform well considering superhero movies usually perform fine in the holiday corridor.

Other promising films on the slate include Jennifer Lawrence's upcoming action film Red Sparrow (March 2), remake The Predator (August 3) and rock biopic Bohemian Rhapsody (Christmas Day). 2018 will also bring the final installment in another young adult trilogy, Maze Runner: The Death Cure (January 26), which should be a solid year-starter for the studio.

In the middle towards flop territory is book adaptation Love, Simon (March 16), which may or may not break out in the midst of competition. Robert Rodriguez's video game adaptation Alita: Battle Angel (July 20) also doesn't look promising. Joe Cornish's The Kid Who Would Be King may have a hard time against similar competition on September 28, while biopic Widows (November 16) will likely be more fit for awards season fare. On the unknown side is young adult fantasy The Darkest Hours (September 14) and something called Bad Times at the El Royale (October 5).


Warner Bros.

After a strong year in 2017, Warner Bros. will have added pressure to try and make 2018 even better. The studio has the most movies this year with 20, though none look like they are going to match the big successes of Wonder Woman and It.

Among the likely winners on Warner's 2018 slate includes their last film of the year, the DC movie Aquaman (December 21). Also, sequel Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (November 16) should be a strong moneymaker. Dwayne Johnson anchors video game adaptation Rampage (April 20), which could be a late-Spring breakout. Sandra Bullock leads an all-female version of Oceans Eight (June 8), which should be strong counter-programming for the action blockbusters of the month. Finally, Melissa McCarthy's latest Life of the Party (May 11) should be a strong counter-programmer as well for the early-May blockbusters.

In the middle, Steven Spielberg directs book adaptation Ready Player One (March 30), which may be in trouble due to strong competition in March. Horror film The Nun (July 13) could be or may not be a success, dependent on reviews. Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga team for musical drama A Star is Born (May 18), which may have middling results due to an odd release date. Shark film The Meg (August 10) could be a late-summer hit, but August is always a tough time to release a movie. Warner Animation Group's Smallfoot (September 14) is another toss-up after two straight September disappointments (Storks and LEGO Ninjago). Finally, Warner Bros. recently acquired Paddington 2 (January 12) from the Weinstein Company, which may or may not fall to the case of sequelitis.

Possible flops include video game adaptation Tomb Raider (March 16), which has gotten middling reception since its' trailer debut. Real-life war story 12 Strong (January 19) also doesn't look promising based on the release date. Pushed back three times, Andy Serkis' troubled Jungle Book: Origins (October 20) also seems headed to the chopping block. Finally, TV series adaptation Teen Titans Go! To The Movies (July 27) looks to only pull in small business, especially considering the animated competition this summer.

Unknowns right now include Clint Eastwood drama The 15:17 to Paris (February 9), comedy Game Night (February 23) and action comedy Tag (June 15).


Universal

Universal and Comcast had a very good year in 2017. As of now, 2018 looks like it could at least come close to matching last year. The year's surest bet for them right now is Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (June 22), which follows up from one of the most successful movies in history, Jurassic World. Other likely strong hits include Illumination Entertainment's The Grinch (November 9), an upcoming Purge movie (July 4), Damien Chazelle's Neil Armstrong biopic First Man (October 12), and the book adaptation finale Fifty Shades Freed (February 9).

Toss-ups include Dwayne Johnson's Skyscraper (July 13), which will be entering a crowded field for summer movies. Also, Jack Black's The House with a Clock in its' Walls (September 21) may or may not succeed with other competition for fright-motivated moviegoers. Peter Jackson brought a stunning first look recently for Mortal Engines (December 14), which will hope to be the holiday season's biggest moneymaker. Kevin Hart has a new movie named Night School (September 28), which also may or may not succeed in the Fall season. Finally, the latest installment in the Insidious franchise, The Last Key will hope to kick off the year on a high note (January 5), with arguably mixed expectations.

On the downside, there are a few unnecessary sequels and remakes. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again (July 20) seems unnecessary and won't repeat its' predecessors' strong business. A Scarface remake (August 10) also falls into that same boat. Finally, an untitled Robert Zemeckis project (November 21) is opening mysteriously over Thanksgiving. But Zemeckis hasn't anchored a hit in years. Finally, Mary Magdalene (March 30) looks solid on the surface, but is opening against a plethora of faith-based competition.

Unknowns right now include Jason Blum horror flick Truth or Dare, threequel Johnny English 3 and Seth Rogen comedy Blockers.


Disney

Disney is getting ready to get to a point where they might be unstoppable, especially with acquiring Fox soon. Right now, their 11-film 2018 slate looks like it could fall short of 2017's $2.4 billion final gross. But, that doesn't mean they don't have a strong slate. The strongest release on the calendar for Disney this year is Marvel's Avengers: Infinity War (May 4), which is culminating 10 years of storytelling. The fanboys and casual Marvel fans will be out in droves, to an obvious worldwide gross above $1 billion. The other surefire blockbuster is Pixar's The Incredibles 2 (June 15), which has been anticipated by animation fans for years. Look for it to possibly join Toy Story 3 and Finding Dory in the billion dollar club worldwide.

Marvel's two other films in 2018 look like strong contenders too. Black Panther (February 16) is tracking strongly, while Ant-Man and the Wasp opens July 6. However, based on release date timing for the former and overall interest in the latter, I don't see both reaching the $300 million club like Thor: Ragnarok and Guardians of the Galaxy, Volume 2 did last year. But they should both pull in $500 million worldwide apiece.

Disney Animation returns to the calendar with their sequel Wreck-it Ralph 2: Ralph Breaks the Internet for Thanksgiving (November 21). The first movie has a cult fanbase. But, I'm not sure about the overall interest in the sequel. Meanwhile, Disney is also hoping Mary Poppins Returns (December 25) will pull in musical fans and multiple generations. However, there are plenty of skeptics who don't think the movie should exist. In the meantime, Disney seems nervous about Solo: A Star Wars Story (May 25) given its' controversial production history. No trailers so far. It's going to be ok because its' Star Wars, but don't expect it to come close to the heights of The Last Jedi.

Disney is heavily-marketing their adaptation of A Wrinkle in Time (March 9), which is a toss-up due to its' mixed trailer reception. The studio also is making The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (November 2), which hopes to be a strong holiday release. But, strong competition from The Grinch and X-Men: Dark Phoenix could hold it back. Christopher Robin (August 3) hopes to be a late-summer sleeper, but previous Winnie the Pooh movies weren't exactly successful. Finally, Disneynature's Dolphins (April 18) will settle for a tiny slice of the box office over Earth Day.