Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Weekend Box Office Predictions for November 17-19, 2017.

This weekend is looking to be very exciting. Three new releases I am very excited about are opening in wide release. Whether or not they will succeed, I'm not sure yet. But I am sure this weekend will be ahead of this same weekend last year, thanks to a group of superheroes.

Here is my predicted Top 10:




















#1: Justice League ($150 million)

Now, this prediction could be a bit too optimistic for two reasons. One, Thor: Ragnarok is still playing. Two, reviews won't be in circulation until Thursday, and they will factor into the business this weekend. But, the DC Cinematic Universe is hinging on this movie. Thankfully, after the critical and audience divide over Batman v. Superman and Suicide Squad, they finally got back on track with Wonder Woman's massive success earlier this year.

Tracking has been very solid, but the excitement on bringing these characters together on screen for the first time still is exciting comic book fans everywhere. With that in mind (plus solid early reactions from fans online), Justice League should be able to pull in a stronger opening weekend than Wonder Woman, though it might not reach Batman v. Superman.


#2: Thor: Ragnarok ($22 million, -59%)

This will obviously be hit pretty hard by Justice League, but the rest of the competition should remain low enough that the Marvel threequel will take the runner-up spot. In the meantime, Ragnarok will easily pass $250 million by the end of this coming weekend.


#3: Murder on the Orient Express ($18 million, -36%)

A lack of any real options for an adult audience should allow Murder on the Orient Express to have a very solid second weekend hold.


#4: Daddy's Home 2 ($16.5 million, -45%)

The family audience will be distracted with more options this weekend, which means that the weekend drop could approach 50%. But, I definitely think the Christmas theme should keep the sequel going at a solid pace in its' second weekend.





















#5: Wonder ($13 million)

The second nationwide release this weekend is the adaptation of the popular R.J. Palacio children's novel, Wonder. With Julia Roberts and Owen Wilson in the cast, this adaptation might fare well with families. However, it will have a lot of competition between superhero movies, comedies and animation all competing for families' attention this month. Unless reviews turn out to be spectacular, that might hurt it more than help it. It will have Thanksgiving weekend to look forward to, but again, I'm not so certain it will be able to pull in a strong number with all the competition.




















#6: The Star ($9 million)

Another family movie opening this weekend? This might not go very well. The Star is aiming for faith-based audiences, however, and they may come out in strong numbers for this. One thing that may also help is the Nativity theme, which means it could have strong holding power through the Christmas season. But, if reviews aren't great, that won't help it. In the meantime, Disney/Pixar's Coco opens five days later for Thanksgiving, and with the competition from Wonder as well, I am doubtful that this will pull in respectable numbers.


#7: A Bad Moms Christmas ($7.5 million, -35%)

A lack of new competition for its' audience, plus the holiday theme should help the Moms have another strong hold in their third weekend. The cumulative gross should make its way above $50 million by the time the weekend is over.


#8: Lady Bird ($2.5 million, expanding)

Expanding to more top markets after fantastic numbers in just 37 locations last weekend should allow Saorise Ronan to climb up the list a little bit (it's preparing for a nationwide expansion next week).


#9: Jigsaw ($2 million, -43%)

It's not the season for horror flicks, but there's no other horror flicks in theaters right now. So, Jigsaw might manage to hold OK late in its run.


#10: Boo 2! A Madea Halloween ($1 million, -52%)

Madea and Tyler Perry movies always fade quickly. Boo 2! isn't showing to be any different as it starts to make its way to DVD and digital download.