Thursday, December 8, 2016

Weekend Box Office Predictions for December 9-11, 2016.

Here is the projected Top 10. Overall business should be ahead of last year:

#1: Moana ($18 million, -37%)
#2: Office Christmas Party ($15 million)
#3: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them ($11.5 million, -38%)
#4: Mrs. Sloane ($6.5 million)
#5: Arrival ($5 million, -32%)
#6: Allied ($4.5 million, -37%)
#7: Doctor Strange ($4 million, -39%)
#8: Trolls ($3 million, -35%)
#9: Hacksaw Ridge ($2.5 million, -27%)
#10: Manchester By the Sea ($2 million, -17%)

Office Christmas Party, based on tracking, looks to be in similar shape to last month's Almost Christmas. There really hasn't been any R-rated comedies in the marketplace for awhile, which could prove to be a strong factor here. Reviews may or may not be positive (they're embargoed so far). The lack of Christmas competition from here on out could be a positive factor here also in the long run. I think a mid-teens millions debut would be a safe assumption.

Right now, the jury is out on Mrs. Sloane. The Jessica Chastain drama is getting some minor awards season attention, but the expansion is only to 1,600 locations right now. My projection may be a bit too generous, or it may be a bit too pessimistic. It could literally do anything. Reviews aren't spectacular though (63% on Rotten Tomatoes).

Moana may hold the top spot for a third-straight weekend, as it held very well for a Thanksgiving release this past weekend. Fantastic Beasts looks to recover this weekend as it prepares for Rogue One. Almost all holdovers should see very good holds this weekend as the marketplace prepares for the Star Wars storm.