Based on my projections, overall business should be ahead of last year. Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Doctor Strange ($37.5 million, -56%)
#2: Trolls ($30 million, -36%)
#3: Arrival ($23 million)
#4: Almost Christmas ($15 million)
#5: Hacksaw Ridge ($10.5 million, -31%)
#6: Shut-in ($6 million)
#7: Boo! A Madea Halloween ($3.5 million, -55%)
The Accountant ($3.5 million, -41%)
#9: Inferno ($3 million, -53%)
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back ($3 million, -46%)
Out of all three new releases, Arrival stands the best chance. It's got fantastic reviews (99% on Rotten Tomatoes), a bankable lead (Amy Adams) and like Hacksaw Ridge last week, it is a different enough option (sci-fi hasn't really had much over the past few months) that it should bring out audiences. Now, there is a small chance, like director Denis Villeneuve's last film Sicario, that the projections could be too high. But, this is a more mainstream choice than that R-rated film, so Arrival should most certainly out-perform Sicario.
Almost Christmas also looks to be in good shape. It's a comedy that opens for holiday season and African-American audiences. These kinds of movies often bring out a large crowd, so do not be surprised if this one breaks out. This brings to mind The Best Man Holiday, which earned an unexpectedly high $30 million debut. With that being a part of an established franchise, I'm not sure this will do nearly as well. But you never know.
On the downside, horror flick Shut-In isn't getting really any buzz or awareness. It might connect with some horror fans, but recently Ouija: Origin of Evil failed to really make much of a dent. Could there be fatigue setting in? Marketing has been noticeable, but barely. I don't expect this to really hang around long.
Doctor Strange looks to have the typical 55-60% drop expected for a Marvel movie in its second weekend, even with the positive word-of-mouth. These films usually have better holding power later down the line. Looking to have better stability is Trolls, which will benefit from a lack of options for families (though some kids being off Monday, Tuesday and Friday this week may put a dent in that). Hacksaw Ridge also looks to benefit from strong word-of-mouth in its second weekend as fall leftovers begin to flee cinemas.
