Based on my projections, overall business should be in line with last year. Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Doctor Strange ($72 million)
#2: Trolls ($38 million)
#3: Hacksaw Ridge ($13.5 million)
#4: Boo! A Madea Halloween ($7 million, -59%)
#5: Inferno ($6.5 million, -56%)
#6: The Accountant ($5 million, -41%)
#7: Jack Reacher: Never Go Back ($4.5 million, -53%)
#8: Ouija: Origin of Evil ($3 million, -58%)
#9: The Girl on the Train ($2.5 million, -43%)
#10: Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children ($2.2 million, -46%)
Doctor Strange is the latest Marvel origin story hoping to entice audiences. So far, tracking has been fairly strong as usual, and reviews are great so far (90% on Rotten Tomatoes). Plus, the character is a pretty popular one among comic book fans. However, the very mystical perspective may or may not be a strong draw for non-fans. In the end, a lack of any real sure bets at the box office in the last couple of months will certainly help here. I would say expect a debut in between Ant-Man ($58 million) and Guardians of the Galaxy ($93 million).
Trolls, meanwhile, is the latest effort from a distributor-hopping DreamWorks Animation (who was recently acquired by Universal, who will start releasing their films in 2018). The adaptation of the Troll dolls has been in development for a few years now, and hasn't really been hugely-anticipated by any means. However, a few strong things are working in its favor. One is the lack of any real successes for the family audience in the last few months. Second is the positive reviews (75% on Rotten Tomatoes), and finally is the strength of its soundtrack, with Justin Timberlake and Anna Kendrick leading the voice cast/singing charge. In what may be DreamWorks' try to get the same success that Disney had with Frozen a few years ago, it should perform respectably. However, true musical fans probably are going to wait for Disney's own Moana later this month, and the Troll dolls don't carry the same level of nostalgia as last year's The Peanuts Movie ($45 million start).
Hacksaw Ridge is the first movie directed by Mel Gibson in over 10 years (2006's Apocalypto), and its earning rave reviews (90% on Rotten Tomatoes) plus some awards season buzz. Those, plus the war theme will prove to be a different enough option to bring in some mainstream audiences. Buzz, however, hasn't been incredibly strong, so don't expect a Saving Private Ryan-like performance here. But it could catch on in the coming weeks.
With all three combining for $125 million at least, the Fall leftovers are all mostly going to start falling fast. Halloween now being a news story will spell bad news for Boo! A Madea Halloween and Ouija: Origin of Evil, while The Accountant might have the best hold of the bunch thanks to its positive word of mouth.
