Overall business may be able to catch up with this same weekend last year.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Jack Reacher - Never Go Back ($21 million)
#2: Boo: A Madea Halloween ($18 million)
#3: The Accountant ($14 million, -43%)
Ouija: Origin of Evil ($14 million)
#5: The Girl on the Train ($7 million, -43%)
#6: Keeping Up with the Joneses ($6 million)
#7: Kevin Hart: What Now? ($5.5 million, -53%)
Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children ($5.5 million, -39%)
#9: Storks ($3.5 million, -39%)
Deepwater Horizon ($3.5 million, -45%)
I'm Not Ashamed ($3.5 million)
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back is one of those sequels you're confused why it actually exists. The first movie wasn't really all that popular. It opened to $15 million, held well over the Christmas season, but even an $80 million final gross isn't something I would make a sequel for ($220 million worldwide is OK, but nothing to really write home about). But Cruise and Paramount have marketed this one very strongly, and with a less back-loaded weekend, it would seem like this might outpace the first film's opening, but not hold nearly as strong in the long run. Reviews aren't great (40% on Rotten Tomatoes), which will keep it from breaking out.
Boo: A Madea Halloween is the first film for Tyler Perry's cross-dressing character in nearly three years, after A Madea Christmas had the lowest start to date for the franchise with $16 million back in 2013. Tracking is a little bit ahead of that movie, and so I'm going with an opening that's slightly higher than that movie's $16 million start. The good news is that despite bad reviews (29% on Rotten Tomatoes), these are usually low-budgeted affairs. So everything will still probably be fine.
Then there's Ouija: Origin of Evil, another continuation that really doesn't make sense. It's a prequel to a board game adaptation that earned horrid reviews, but it was a success at the box office ($50 million against a $5 million budget). In surprise contrast though, Origin of Evil is surprisingly earning strong reviews (81% on Rotten Tomatoes), which may help sway in some naysayers. Being the week before Halloween, there's a good chance this will have some solid holding power as well.
On the weak end of the spectrum is Keeping Up with the Joneses which is tracking in line with Masterminds ($6.5 million) through the same point. The cast isn't top-notch, with Jon Hamm being the only real name in the cast. But the spy comedy just hasn't been pulling in really any interest, and reviews are terrible (17% on Rotten Tomatoes).
Finally, Pure Flix releases faith-based true story I'm Not Ashamed, which opens in 505 locations. Based on the true story of a teen victim of the Columbine High School tragedy, the film has the potential to break out among faith-based audiences. But then again, if awareness isn't really high enough, then it might be difficult for it to break out.
As for holdovers, The Accountant and Deepwater Horizon may have a hard time holding well due to added competition, but buzz has been positive for the Ben Affleck flick. The Girl on the Train may also get lost a little in the midst of all the new releases. Kevin Hart: What Now? looks to probably drop the hardest as most of his fanbase may have already come out in droves. The strongest holds will likely go to the Halloween and family-based films such as Storks and Miss Peregrine.
