Thursday, October 13, 2016

Weekend Box Office Predictions for October 14-16, 2016.

Overall business will likely have a hard time matching this same weekend last year.

Here is the projected Top 10:

#1: The Accountant ($16 million)
#2: The Girl on the Train ($13.5 million, -45%)
#3: Kevin Hart: What Now? ($13 million)
#4: Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children ($9 million, -40%)
#5: Deepwater Horizon ($7 million, -39%)
#6: Max Steel ($6 million)
#7: Storks ($5.5 million, -34%)
#8: The Magnificent Seven ($5 million, -45%)
#9: Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life ($4.5 million, -35%)
      The Birth of a Nation ($4.5 million, -36%)

The Accountant does boast the starpower of Ben Affleck and Anna Kendrick, but it isn't tracking strong despite the strong marketing effort. Reviews are middling-to-negative (44% on Rotten Tomatoes) as well. Overall, this seems likely to pull in a mid-teens millions debut, in line with Affleck's last effort Argo, but that one had a huge awards season following.

Kevin Hart: What Now? follows a few years after the comedian's last comic hit, Let Me Explain ($32.2 million). Since then, Hart has become a movie star, appearing in hits such as Ride Along and Central Intelligence. Being a concert pic, this probably won't do nearly as well, but don't be surprised if it gets into the mid-teens millions.

Max Steel has the least anticipation, thanks to a very limited marketing campaign and very limited awareness. Plus October is not a good month to debut a big-budget action flick. Reviews haven't come in yet either. I think my projection is a little on the too optimistic side.

The Girl on the Train will benefit from no new real competition for female audiences, even with negative reviews. Mrs. Peregrine, Middle School and Storks should continue to stabilize thanks to no competition for families, and Deepwater Horizon should also have a decent hold thanks to good word of mouth. Other holdovers should follow suit as the main releases really don't have much punch to give.