Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: Suicide Squad ($20 million, -54%)
#2: Sausage Party ($19 million, -44%)
#3: War Dogs ($18 million)
#4: Ben-Hur ($15 million)
#5: Pete's Dragon ($13 million, -40%)
#6: Kubo and the Two Strings ($12.5 million)
#7: Jason Bourne ($8.5 million, -39%)
#8: Bad Moms ($7.5 million, -34%)
#9: The Secret Life of Pets ($5.5 million, -40%)
#10: Star Trek Beyond ($4.5 million, -35%)
Florence Foster Jenkins ($4.5 million, -32%)
All three new releases aren't faring very well in terms of buzz, but out of all three, War Dogs is the strongest. It's from the director of The Hangover trilogy, and is earning decent remarks from critics so far (65% on Rotten Tomatoes). The bad thing is that competition for R-rated adult fare is intense right now with Sausage Party and Bad Moms, which will limit its potential.
Ben-Hur is yet another remake opening this year, this time remaking a 1959 MGM film. Despite a strong marketing effort from Paramount, overall buzz has been very weak. Reviews haven't been released yet either, another bad sign. Compared to a $100 million budget, the remake looks likely to be another big miss this summer.
Meanwhile, Laika Studios returns with their latest, Kubo and the Two Strings. The Asian-themed flick has earned acclaim from critics (90% on Rotten Tomatoes), and has been marketed heavily. But, Laika's stop-motion productions have been more prestigious awards season fare instead of being commercial hits (their biggest movie to date, Coraline, earned $75 million back in 2009). That, along with strong competition from Pete's Dragon will limit its opening this weekend.
With the weak openers, the weekend will likely be a battle for #1 between Suicide Squad and last weekend's breakout Sausage Party. Squad should hold better than last weekend, and Party will benefit from strong reviews (though a "B" CinemaScore won't help matters). Strong reviews and word-of-mouth should keep Pete's Dragon from dropping above 50% this weekend.
Most other holdovers should see decent holds. The only exception might be Secret Life of Pets, which will have a direct competitor in the animated field this weekend.
