Overall business will probably trail this same weekend last year.
Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: The Secret Life of Pets ($75 million)
#2: Finding Dory ($22 million, -48%)
#3: The Legend of Tarzan ($19 million, -51%)
#4: Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates ($15 million)
#5: The Purge: Election Year ($14 million, -56%)
#6: The BFG ($10.5 million, -44%)
#7: Independence Day: Resurgence ($9 million, -46%)
#8: Central Intelligence ($8 million, -36%)
#9: The Shallows ($5.5 million, -38%)
#10: Free State of Jones ($2.5 million, -39%)
The Secret Life of Pets has been marketed very heavily by Universal over the last year, as they are trying to recapture the success story of their Despicable Me franchise (they have a third movie in that series on the way for a release next year). And thanks to the near-omnipresent marketing approach, Illumination Entertainment has had an amazing track record for their first five movies, with each animated movie opening to at least $56 million (Minions broke records last year by opening to $115 million). Very good early reviews (79% on Rotten Tomatoes), Finding Dory starting to finally wind down and the underperformance of The BFG last weekend will all work very well in this film's favor.
Competition in the form of Ice Age: Collision course may shorten its legs though.
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates is a wild card. It hasn't been tracking incredibly well, and R-rated comedies haven't had a very good year, as Neighbors 2 finished with less than half of its predecessor. But maybe the groomsman-style comedy will be able to pull in some young adults in need of a laugh. Solid reviews (69% on Rotten Tomatoes) will help.
In what has been one of the most impressive box office runs I've seen out of a movie ever, Finding Dory will likely start slowing down this weekend with a new movie aimed at families out. It should still remain a potent force in theaters though. The Legend of Tarzan should hold OK as there's no real competition this weekend, but I don't know, I may be a bit conservative. Purge should drop typically like horror films do, and despite apparent strong word-of-mouth, The BFG won't have any favors done for it by Pets this weekend.
Independence Day: Resurgence should continue shrinking at a fast rate, while Central Intelligence should get another break as Mike and Dave is an R-rated film, whereas Intelligence will be more accessible to younger audiences. Shallows and Free State of Jones should level off decently due to no competition.
