Monday, June 20, 2016

Weekend Box Office Report: "Finding Dory" Rides Massive Tidal Wave to Animation Record, "Central Intelligence" Rock-Solid at #2.

Despite being a strong weekend, overall business fell off 7% from this same weekend last year, which had Inside Out ($90 million) open a strong #2 to Jurassic World ($106 million).


Finding Dory.jpgIt was expected to be huge, and considering how well-loved its predecessor is, maybe we should have expected a record-shattering debut. Finding Dory gave Pixar and animation its biggest start ever, with an absolutely fantabulous $136.2 million, for an amazing $31,634 per-venue average from an ultra-wide 4,305 locations (the 12th widest-release ever). Many analysts projected a debut in line with Minions ($115 million), but buzz continued to rise (Fandango reported the film had the most pre-sales for an animated movie ever), and reviews were strong (95% on Rotten Tomatoes). Audiences clearly loved what they saw also ("A" CinemaScore). Similar to other Pixar releases, Dory should have a long life at the box office, though July does bring some strong competition in the form of The Secret Life of Pets (July 8) and Ice Age: Collision Course (July 22). It was a bit more front-loaded than expected over the weekend, though that's likely due to fanbase rush-out on Friday and the NBA Finals on Sunday.



Overseas, Dory started off with $50 million from just 29 international territories (including $17.5 million from China, an all-time high for Pixar). With many territories set to still open and the movie outpacing Inside Out ($875 million worldwide finish) in many of its openings, Dory could very well be Disney's fourth movie to pass $1 billion worldwide so far this year, a record for the industry.

CentralIntelligencePoster.jpg
The only people that had the guts to open directly against Pixar was Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson and Kevin Hart, a team-up that proved to be a good one. Central Intelligence opened a bit ahead of expectations with a Rock-solid (pun intended) $34.5 million, for a very solid $9,835 per-venue average. For Johnson, this is lower than last year's San Andreas ($54 million) and nowhere near the Fast and Furious movies, but it is par for the course for Hart, as the film opened right in between last year's Get Hard ($33 million) and earlier this year's Ride Along 2 ($35.5 million). With positive reviews (66% on Rotten Tomatoes) and an "A-" CinemaScore, plus no comedy competition until Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates (July 8), this could definitely prove to be a sleeper this summer. Distributor Warner Bros. is now 2 for 2 over the last 2 weeks, and produced the film for just $50 million.






Last week's topper, The Conjuring 2, fell harder than expected, despite earning strong audience reception for a horror flick. The sequel was down 62% to $15.6 million, for a still very good $71.7 million gross in 10 days. In comparison, the first Conjuring was off 47% in its second weekend and had earned $12 million more through the same point. At its current pace, as long as it holds better next weekend, the sequel should be able to reach $100 million. It is doing fantastic overseas however, where it has earned $100 million so far.

Now You See Me 2 followed, and also fell hard, off 57% to $9.7 million, for a somewhat disappointing $41.4 million gross in 10 days. In comparison, the first Now You See Me was off just 35% in its second weekend. Unless it holds better in the coming weeks (considering the competition, it may not), it won't come anywhere close to its predecessor's $120 million final gross. Overseas, it has earned $50 million so far.

However, both sequels held better than Warcraft, which had the floor pulled out from underneath it this weekend. The video game adaptation was down an alarming 73% to $6.5 million, for a very bad $37.7 million pick-up in 10 days. For second weekends, that ties Fifty Shades of Grey for the second-worst hold in over 3,000 locations, after Friday the 13th (80%). Overseas, however, Warcraft will be bailed out, with over $200 million in China and $380 million worldwide so far. A finish near or above $500 million would be enough to break even.

X-Men: Apocalypse followed with a 48% drop to $5.2 million, for an OK, but underwhelming $146.1 million gross in 24 days. The latest in the superhero franchise did pass $500 million worldwide this weekend, but it won't come close to reaching Days of Future Past's $750 million worldwide finish. Tying it for sixth place was Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, which took a direct hit from Dory and fell 64% to $5.2 million, for a disappointing $71.9 million gross in 17 days. An $85 million finish would be less than half of the $190 million earned by the first movie. Overseas, its at just $142 million so far with China yet to open.

Me Before You followed with a heavy drop, off 54% to $4.2 million, for a decent, if unspectacular $46.4 million gross in 17 days. Look for a finish in the $55-60 million range, which would still look good in the face of a $20 million budget.

Disney rounded out the Top 10 with a disappointment and a blockbuster. Alice Through the Looking Glass had its strongest hold yet (due to being in double-features with Dory), off 36% to $3.6 million, for a still very disappointing $69.3 million gross in 24 days. It might hit $80 million, but probably won't go any higher. Overseas, its at $235 million and should wind up above $300 million, but that still won't be enough to cover marketing expenses.

Captain America: Civil War followed with a 47% dip to $2.3 million, for a still very strong $401.3 million gross in seven weeks of release. It is on track to match Iron Man 3's final gross ($409 million), and is only the 23rd movie in history to pass the quadruple-century mark. However, some expected it to do better. Worldwide, its at still $1.14 billion, and ranks as the 12th-biggest movie ever. But it will fall short of Iron Man 3 there ($1.215 billion).

And that's it. Next weekend, one of the summer's biggest wild cards arrives, as Independence Day: Resurgence arrives 23 years after its predecessor. Could it pull a Jurassic World and break out? Also opening is shark thriller The Shallows and historical drama Free State of Jones. Could summer continue to be on the upswing? We'll see.