Overall business may catch up with this same weekend last year.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Finding Dory ($70 million, -48%)
#2: Independence Day: Resurgence ($62 million)
#3: Central Intelligence ($20 million, -44%)
#4: Free State of Jones ($15 million)
#5: The Shallows ($13 million)
#6: The Conjuring 2 ($7 million, -53%)
#7: Now You See Me 2 ($5 million, -47%)
#8: Warcraft ($4 million, -45%)
#9: X-Men: Apocalypse ($3 million, -43%)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows ($3 million, -44%)
Independence Day: Resurgence could break out, or it could turn into a massive misfire. Right now, no one knows for sure. I am shooting for the middle, thinking it will pull in a strong audience but nowhere near the levels of last year's 90's reboot Jurassic World. Early reviews are mixed (55% on Rotten Tomatoes), and overall interest and anticipation is only decent. It could break out and take #1, but for now, I have it sitting in second.
Free State of Jones actually stands a better chance at breaking out, as it is completely different from any movie released this summer. As a historical drama, it will pull in an older audience looking for a break from summer popcorn munchers. The R rating may hold it back a little bit though.
The Shallows also arrives following a last second release date shift (it was originally set to open next Wednesday). Buzz has been actually pretty solid for the shark thriller, as the Blake Lively thriller will hope to be solid counterprogramming. It won't be easy for the film to appeal to general audiences, so look for an opening more in line with Lively's last film, The Age of Adaline.
Finding Dory stands a very good chance at holding the top spot following its record-shattering debut last weekend. But considering how huge its debut was, the chances of it holding strong are pretty low at this point. Fans have already rushed out, so its up to word-of-mouth to carry it the rest of the way. I'm going to go with a drop close to 50%, but it could drop higher.
Central Intelligence should hold better this weekend thanks to no competition. Meanwhile, almost all other holdovers hoping to have a better chance at holding well will take a hit from Independence Day: Resurgence.
