In comparison to this same weekend last year, overall business should be ahead of this same weekend last year.
Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows ($45 million)
#2: X-Men: Apocalypse ($28 million, -57%)
#3: Me Before You ($15 million)
#4: Alice Through the Looking Glass ($13.5 million, -50%)
#5: The Angry Birds Movie ($10.5 million, -44%)
#6: Popstar: Never Stop Popping ($9 million)
#7: Captain America: Civil War ($8.5 million, -45%)
#8: Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising ($4.5 million, -52%)
#9: The Jungle Book ($4 million, -44%)
The Nice Guys ($4 million, -39%)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows may be a strong performer, or it may not be. True, the first Turtles was a surprise hit, opening to $65 million and finishing with almost $500 million worldwide, but its not very well remembered by many. Competition for family audiences is intense right now with The Angry Birds Movie, Alice Through the Looking Glass, Civil War and even The Jungle Book still all likely to be in the Top 10. It has been aggressively marketed, but early reviews are terrible (20% on Rotten Tomatoes). All in all, this won't come close to its' predecessors' opening, but it will still pull in enough boys and teens to give it the #1 spot.
Me Before You seems poised to possibly break-out. It's a romantic dramedy, and there really hasn't been any of these films for date night crowds in a long while. With strong marketing and buzz, this could be a decent-sized hit. The British film is suffering from mixed reviews (55% on Rotten Tomatoes), but that probably won't matter.
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping marks the feature film debut for the comedy rap group The Lonely Island (led by Andy Samberg). Buzz and awareness for the film has been small, even though the group is fairly popular. I may be a bit generous with this prediction, as it could basically either overperform or really underwhelm.
X-Men: Apocalypse is set to have a heavy drop, per the norm for its franchise as well as the arrival of another action flick. Alice Through the Looking Glass will also have a heavy drop after Memorial Day, but also due to mixed word-of-mouth (most live-action fairy tales drop near 50%). Having the strongest hold will likely be The Nice Guys, while Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising will get a dose of competition from Popstar. Disney's two other films in the Top 10 should stabilize, as Captain America: Civil War and The Jungle Book hang around. The Angry Birds Movie may or may not hold well, as Turtles will steal older children.
