Thursday, May 26, 2016

Memorial Day Weekend Box Office Predictions.

Here is the predicted Top 10:

#1: X-Men: Apocalypse ($90 million 3-day, $110 million 4-day)
#2
: Alice Through the Looking Glass ($43 million 3-day, $55 million 4-day)
#3: The Angry Birds Movie ($23 million [-41%] 3-day, $33.5 million 4-day)
#4: Captain America: Civil War ($18.5 million [-44%] 3-day, $25 million 4-day)
#5: Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising ($13 million [-40%] 3-day, $17.5 million 4-day)
#6: The Nice Guys ($8 million [-29%] 3-day, $10 million 4-day)
#7: The Jungle Book ($6.5 million [-41%] 3-day, $8 million 4-day)
#8: Money Monster ($4.5 million [-37%] 3-day, $6 million 4-day)
#9: Zootopia ($1 million 3-day [-41%] 3-day, $1.3 million 4-day)
      The Darkness ($1 million 3-day [-57%] 3-day, $1.3 million 4-day)


Coming in as the fourth superhero event of the year, X-Men: Apocalypse is wildly-anticipated by its strong fanbase, which drove Days of Future Past to record heights two years ago ($740 million worldwide). Based on the strong buzz, Apocalypse seems like it is set to match that movie's $110 million 4-day start. However, one thing that may hurt it is that overall critical reception is down the middle (51% on Rotten Tomatoes). And, considering audiences have already had Deadpool, Batman v. Superman and the still-going Captain America: Civil War, X-Men: Apocalypse will obviously come nowhere near those three's opening weekends of $150 million plus. It did get off to a huge $105 million start overseas last weekend though.

Even though I'm really excited about it, I have a bad feeling about Alice Through the Looking Glass. It's opening on a weekend that family fare often succeeds in, but the original Alice in Wonderland (directed by Tim Burton, who is now a producer here), despite earning over $1 billion worldwide, earned mixed-to-negative reactions from critics and audiences. Overall buzz for the sequel has also been quiet. And critical sentiment for this one isn't good either (44% on Rotten Tomatoes). It will do better than last year's Disney flop Tomorrowland, but it might not reach Kung Fu Panda 2's $60 million Memorial Day Weekend opening. But Disney can handle a miss here, as they already have 3 movies this year that potentially could all finish above $1 billion worldwide (and all 3 might be in the Top 10 list this week also).

Last weekend's winner, The Angry Birds Movie, will lose some family attention to Alice, but should still remain a solid performer this weekend. Captain America will likely lose attention to X-Men, but should also remain in the mix in its fourth frame. Neighbors 2 might hold on strong thanks to no competition, while The Nice Guys will probably have the strongest hold thanks to strong critical reception catching up with it.

The Jungle Book may or may not hold on as another Disney movie, Alice, takes family audiences' attention. Same for Zootopia, which might make a 13th-straight weekend thanks to not much opening these days. Money Monster should hold better than last weekend thanks to no additional competition, while The Darkness will continue to fall like typical horror fare.