Here are the predictions for this weekend:
#1: Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice ($27 million, -47%)
#2: The Boss ($18 million)
#3: Zootopia ($12.5 million, -35%)
#3: Criminal ($10 million)
#4: Hardcore Henry ($8 million)
#5: My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 ($7 million, -38%)
#6: God's Not Dead 2 ($5 million, -34%)
Miracles from Heaven ($5 million, -32%)
#8: The Divergent Series: Allegiant ($3.5 million, -40%)
#9: 10 Cloverfield Lane ($3 million, -35%)
Eye in the Sky ($3 million, -23%)
The only new release of the three that really has appeared under tracking has been The Boss. And its another comedy from Melissa McCarthy (Spy, Bridesmaids), who has had strong numbers for majority of her films. Look for Boss to at least come close, and being the only real female-skewing comedy of the next month, should allow for it to have some strong legs in the coming weeks.
Criminal and Hardcore Henry may open lower than what I am estimating, simply because I haven't heard much or seen much promotion for either. They will benefit from what has been no real R-rated action films in the marketplace for awhile, but again, buzz and awareness seems small for both films. (Henry is benefiting from solid critical reception, while Criminal is benefiting from Kevin Costner in the lead).
Unless Boss overperforms, Batman v. Superman should remain at #1 for the last time. How hard it will drop remains to be seen. It will stabilize from last weekend, but the mixed reception may keep it from holding strong. Zootopia, on the other hand, will continue to benefit from strong word-of-mouth, and has one more weekend with family audiences until fellow Disney movie The Jungle Book opens.
As for other holdovers, they should all do decently as My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 will continue to bring in older adults, while God's Not Dead 2 and Miracles from Heaven have no additional competition. The lack of any real competition should also help Allegiant and 10 Cloverfield Lane, with Eye in the Sky holding the strongest thanks to another possible expansion.
