Thursday, March 17, 2016

Weekend Box Office Predictions for March 18-20, 2016.

Here is the projected Top 10:

#1The Divergent Series: Allegiant ($38 million)
#2: Zootopia ($31 million, -38%)
#3Miracles from Heaven ($18 million) ($23 million 5-day start)
#4: 10 Cloverfield Lane ($13 million, -49%)
#5: Deadpool ($7 million, -35%)
#6: London Has Fallen ($6.5 million, -39%)
#7: Whisky Tango Foxtrot ($2.7 million, -41%)
#8: The Perfect Match ($2 million, -52%)
      The Young Messiah ($2 million, -41%)
#10: Risen ($1.5 million, -35%)
        The Brothers Grimsby ($1.5 million, -53%)


The third installment in the Divergent series has arrived....with not much excitement. It is certainly true that the YA genre has faded significantly at the box office in the last couple of years (Mockingjay - Part II was the lowest-grossing installment in The Hunger Games trilogy). While buzz for the third of four films in this trilogy has been good, it hasn't been great. Both Divergent and Insurgent opened to just over $50 million apiece, I think this is set to slide quite a bit from that. Overseas may make up the difference though.

Faith-based films are strong this year, but they've ended up hit and miss. Risen has done decently, while The Young Messiah was unable to attract much attention last weekend. Miracles from Heaven has outperformed both films in terms of buzz and awareness, and has Jennifer Garner in the lead. A Wednesday opening will soften demand for the film over the weekend, and I would not expect the same breakout that Heaven is for Real attained two years ago. But Miracles is still set for strong numbers for a faith-based film.

Zootopia will be in a fairly close race for the top spot with Allegiant but will continue to play strong in its third frame. 10 Cloverfield Lane may or may not hold well, while Deadpool will also remain in the mix as none of the new competition is R-rated or involves superheroes (that will change next week). Little competition should help Whiskey Tango Foxtrot and London Has Fallen, while added competition will hurt The Young Messiah and Risen (to a small extent). The Brothers Grimsby will fall hard thanks to negative word-of-mouth, while the jury is out on The Perfect Match.