Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: Zootopia ($41 million, -44%)
#2: 10 Cloverfield Lane ($26 million)
#3: London Has Fallen ($13 million, -40%)
#4: The Brothers Grimsby ($11.5 million)
#5: Deadpool ($10 million, -39%)
#6: The Young Messiah ($9.5 million)
#7: Whiskey Tango Foxtrot ($4.5 million, -41%)
#8: The Revenant ($2.5 million, -24%)
Kung Fu Panda 3 ($2.5 million, -29%)
#10: Gods of Egypt ($2 million, -60%)
Risen ($2 million, -49%)
Eddie the Eagle ($2 million, -36%)
The mystery project revealed by Paramount back in January, 10 Cloverfield Lane has been said to be the "sequel" of sorts to the cult disaster hit Cloverfield ($140 million domestic gross). Starring John Goodman, the thriller film has had strong buzz, but overall excitement has calmed down a little since then. Regardless, this should still open strong at #2 with at least $20 million.
Sacha Baron Cohen returns in his comedic form with The Brothers Grimsby. A spy thriller of sorts, Cohen hasn't been a strong draw at the box office in recent years (The Dictator was a disappointment back in 2011). Look for a low-teens millions opening and a quick fade from theaters if reviews aren't good (they are down the middle right now).
The Young Messiah is the second of four faith-based films opening within six weeks of each other, and that is both a good and bad thing. Risen is losing momentum faster than expected (it may still crack the Top 10 this week) so audiences may be interested. But Miracles from Heaven opens next week, which will tamper with its chances. Christian sites have been promoting and praising it, but buzz has been very minor. I don't think it will reach Risen's $12 million opening weekend.
With its strong opening, Zootopia looks set to repeat at #1. Animated films that usually open this strong during the Spring drop around 40-45% in their second weekend, and I would expect a similar situation here (with a slight chance of a stronger hold). London Has Fallen will benefit from no real competition (as its rated R while 10 Cloverfield Lane is PG-13), and its stronger than expected word-of-mouth could keep its drop under 50%. Deadpool will also remain in the mix with a stronger hold than last week thanks to no real competition.
As for the rest of the pack, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot should hold decently thanks to no competition for females. The rest of the list will be close with 5 movies fighting for 3 spots. Little to no added competition or positive word-of-mouth will benefit The Revenant, Kung Fu Panda 3 and Eddie the Eagle, while The Young Messiah will spell trouble for Risen and bad word-of-mouth will continue to show Gods of Egypt an early exit.
