Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: The Hunger Games - Mockingjay: Part 2 ($130 million)
#2: The Night Before ($18 million)
#3: The Peanuts Movie ($16 million, -33%)
#4: Spectre ($15 million, -55%)
#5: The Secret in their Eyes ($9 million)
#6: Love the Coopers ($5 million, -40%)
#7: The Martian ($4 million, -40%)
#8: The 33 ($3.5 million, -40%)
Spotlight ($3.5 million)
#10: Goosebumps ($3 million, -35%)
Bridge of Spies ($3 million, -30%)
The Hunger Games comes to a close this weekend as Mockingjay - Part II finally hits theaters. Part I opened on this same weekend last year to $122 million, which was far short of Catching Fire's $159 million opening. Buzz has been great, but not nearly as strong as the first two movies in the franchise, which isn't a great sign. However, advance ticket sales have been in line with Part I. With more fans likely to rush out to see the final installment, do not be surprised if Part II increases a little bit from Part I's opening. Also, with a day-and-date opening in 87 territories (including China), look for a massive worldwide opening.
The Night Before will be aiming for older guys not interested in YA adaptations. And its got some good things going for it. Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Seth Rogen and Anthony Mackie, plus an ensemble cast. Reviews are good (64% on Rotten Tomatoes), plus there hasn't been any R-rated comedy in the marketplace in months. This may break out. Or it may open a bit smaller and have strong legs throughout the Christmas season.
The Secret in Their Eyes is the second release for distributor newbie STX Entertainment, following the critical and commercial success of The Gift. Playing more as an option for older adults, the film does boast the starpower of Julia Roberts, Chewetel Ejiofor, and Nicole Kidman. Not much competition for older adults should guarantee a decent crowd here. However, reviews are negative so far (38% on Rotten Tomatoes). This may be another leggy player if its not overshadowed by the other films in the marketplace.
As for the holdovers, The Peanuts Movie should be able to dodge Katniss, as there's no competition for younger kids until next week. Goosebumps should also hold decently. Spectre will get hit the hardest as its audience will get direct competition. Love the Coopers and Bridge of Spies will have to compete against The Secret in their Eyes for older adults, but there is room for all of them to do well as those two have the Christmas theme and Oscar potential to their advantage. The Martian and The 33 should also remain in the mix, and will have to hope on word-of-mouth to hold well.
