Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: Steve Jobs ($18 million)
#2: The Last Witch Hunter ($15 million)
Goosebumps ($15 million, -37%)
#2: The Last Witch Hunter ($15 million)
Goosebumps ($15 million, -37%)
#4: The Martian ($13 million, -39%)
#5: Bridge of Spies ($10 million, -35%)
#6: Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension ($9 million)
#7: Hotel Transylvania 2 ($8.5 million, -33%)
#8: Jem and the Holograms ($5.5 million)
Crimson Peak ($5.5 million, -58%)
#5: Bridge of Spies ($10 million, -35%)
#6: Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension ($9 million)
#7: Hotel Transylvania 2 ($8.5 million, -33%)
#8: Jem and the Holograms ($5.5 million)
Crimson Peak ($5.5 million, -58%)
#10: Rock the Kasbah ($4.5 million)
Steve Jobs is one of this year's early contenders for the Best Picture trophy. Great reviews (85% on Rotten Tomatoes) and fairly good buzz will play well in its favor. Its played strong in limited release. The only setback is that there is a lot of competition for adults, but do not be surprised if it ends up taking #1.
The Last Witch Hunter is actually a remake of a 2007 movie that earned over $100 million stateside. Vin Diesel stars, and he has earned a lot more fans in recent memory thanks to the Fast and Furious movies. But, outside of that, he hasn't anchored a major hit in recent memory. Direct competition won't help either. Look for a start just under his last solo effort, Riddick ($18 million).
The Paranormal Activity franchise comes to a close this weekend after six years and six movies (including one spin-off). But it won't be ending on a high note. Thanks to Paramount's controversial move of releasing the movie On Demand just two weeks after release, many theater chains have dropped it (its only playing in around 1,600 locations this weekend). The fact that some won't have to wait long to view it at home, along with direct competition, will put a damper on the grosses this weekend.
Universal has two movies this weekend, as they are dumping Jem and the Holograms at an unusual time. The adaptation of the 80's cartoon series hasn't had a good marketing push, and is set to have a low opening at the bottom of the list. Young girls and nostalgic parents may be interested. Look for Judy Moody and Ramona and Beezus-level numbers, perhaps slightly less.
The one of least familiarity, in my opinion, is Bill Murray's Rock the Kasbah. Reviews have been horrible, and marketing has also been light. Murray has a decent fanbase, and distributor Open Road Films is pushing it out in over 2,000 locations. But look for very modest numbers.
As for holdovers, as Halloween approaches, look for family holdovers Goosebumps and Hotel Transylvania 2 to have solid holds. Bridge of Spies, despite added competition from Steve Jobs, may hold strong in benefit to strong reviews and Oscar buzz. The Martian should hang in there as well even with more films for adults. Finally, Crimson Peak will be hit hard from the one-two punch of Paranormal Activity and The Last Witch Hunter (even though it is holding onto IMAX screens).
