Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: Hotel Transylvania 2 ($37 million)
#2: Everest (expanding, $21 million)
#3: The Intern ($15 million)
#4: The Maze Runner: Scorch Trials ($14.5 million, -52%)
#5: Black Mass ($13.5 million, -40%)
#6: The Visit ($6.5 million, -44%)
#7: The Perfect Guy ($5 million, -49%)
#8: The Green Inferno ($4.5 million)
#9: War Room ($4 million, -35%)
#10: A Walk in the Woods ($1.5 million, -46%)
Hotel Transylvania 2 is the first wide-release family offering in a couple of months (Shaun the Sheep Movie didn't really make much of an impression). In that case, many kids will be in theater seats this weekend. The first Hotel Transylvania broke the September opening weekend record with $42.5 million, and has managed to hold onto it for three years. Can the sequel set a new record? Right now, I'm not sure it can. Animated sequels are hit-or-miss at the box office. Sometimes they fall far short of their predecessors (Cars 2 and Kung Fu Panda 2 for example) or they can exceed their predecessor's numbers (Madagascar 3 and Despicable Me 2 for example). Sony's last animated sequel, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, opened slightly higher than its predecessor, but wound up just $5 million below it in the long run. Right now, I'm predicting a slight drop-off, as Hotel Transylvania was well-liked, but it didn't become a phenomenon a'la Despicable Me or Frozen.
Everest expands nationwide following a strong limited debut. As of now, its tricky to predict how well it will do nationwide as the IMAX 3D start last weekend will damper some chances at breaking out. But the solid critical reception and strong marketing effort could definitely get mainstream audiences into theaters. Don't be surprised if it crosses $20 million.
The Intern brings together Anne Hathaway and Robert De Niro, and could succeed on a long-term scale. Reviews haven't been great but this is the kind of film that can draw in older audiences later in its run. In that case, a low-to-mid teens millions debut would suffice just fine for the PG-13 dramedy.
The Green Inferno releases into over 1,500 locations from an unknown distributor (High Top). As a horror flick, it could bring in diehard fans of the genre. However, it is an extremely competitive frame, and a lack of strong marketing will definitely keep this one in the lower tier of the Top 10. Social media buzz has been solid though.
As for The Scorch Trials, daily business has ranged from being in line to slightly exceeding its predecessor. Unfortunately, being a sequel, and additional competition will probably not allow it to drop below 50%. Black Mass, despite mixed audience reception, stands a better chance at holding better than 50%, but The Intern will steal some adults. No additional competition will benefit The Visit as well as War Room, while competition will affect The Perfect Guy and A Walk in the Woods.
