Thursday, September 3, 2015

Weekend Box Office Predictions for Labor Day Weekend, 2015

Here is the predicted list for the 4-day stretch:

#1: War Room ($10 million, -12%)
#2: Straight Outta Compton ($9.5 million, -28%)
#3: The Transporter Refueled ($9 million)
#4A Walk in the Woods ($8.5 million)
#5: Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation ($7.5 million, -9%)
#6: No Escape ($6.5 million, -20%)
#7: The Man from U.N.C.L.E. ($3.8 million, -14%)
#8: Ant-Man ($3.6 million, +16%)
#9: Minions ($3.5 million, +21%)
#10: Sinister 2 ($3.4 million, -28%)
#11: Hitman: Agent 47 ($3.2 million, -24%)
#12: The Gift ($3 million, exact same)
#13: Jurassic World ($2.8 million, -7%)
#14: Inside Out ($2.6 million, re-expanding)
#15: American Ultra ($2.4 million, -14%)

Following a solid $1.2 million start on Wednesday, there's a decent chance that by Monday, A Walk in the Woods passes $10 million. That would be a great start for a small release. Meanwhile, buzz hasn't been noticeable for the new Transporter, which seems likely right now to fall short of $10 million for the 4-day start. Overseas is going to try to help it, as the action flick is opening in 27 foreign territories.

Its going to be very close between War Room and Straight Outta Compton for the weekend. Based on how the latter has been playing out, it would seem like the Christian drama stands a great chance at taking the top spot. But again, it will all depend on how word-of-mouth factors in. Longer-term holdovers will have better holds this weekend.

Older summer hits such as Inside Out and Jurassic World are re-entering wide release this weekend, and will only add more to their impressive totals. Southpaw and Pixels are also re-adding theaters, but will likely only post modest gains. This weekend alone boasts 22 movies playing in at least 1,000 locations, so all will likely be boosted somewhat.