I know this is really really late. But I wanted to write a post about how unpredictable this summer season has been.
I am going to review what happened this summer month by month, starting with May.
May was expected to deliver a record-breaker as Avengers: Age of Ultron came in with sky-high buzz. But thanks to multiple sports events and pre-release mixed buzz, Ultron ended up falling short of those expectations, but still packing a massive punch, with a $191 million opening. It ended up being more frontloaded than its predecessor, and is set to finish just under $460 million domestically. That's off 26% from the first movie's insane $623 million gross. Overseas, Ultron did outgross its predecessor, but the worldwide finish of $1.4 billion still trails the first movie ($1.519 billion) by 8%. Still though, Ultron will finish right behind Star Wars as the eighth-biggest movie of all-time domestically, and sixth on the all-time list worldwide right behind Furious 7 and its predecessor.
The rest of May didn't deliver nearly as well. May 8 saw Reese Witherspoon crash and burn with Hot Pursuit ($34.6 million). The following weekend brought two solid hits, with Pitch Perfect 2 overperforming with a $70 million opening and a $183 million domestic finish ($285 million worldwide). Mad Max: Fury Road had some of the best reviews of the summer (98% on Rotten Tomatoes), and rode it to a $44 million opening. It also had solid holding power, finishing with $154 million and a solid (if unspectacular) $375 million worldwide. That may or may not be enough to get profit off of a $150 million budget.
Memorial Day Weekend saw the summer's true first pricey misfire (sadly) with Brad Bird's Tomorrowland. With mixed reviews and an obscure marketing effort, Disney's $190 million production earned just $93 million domestically and $210 million worldwide, costing the studio a $120 million write-down. Faring better was the Poltergeist remake, which managed nearly $100 million worldwide off a $35 million budget. The movie that fared the best in the last two weekends of May was Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's disaster flick San Andreas, which pulled in a solid $55 million opening on its way to $155 million domestically and $475 million worldwide (the budget was $110 million). The end of May also carried a flop as Sony's Aloha only earned just over $20 million in its entire run despite its starpower.
June started off a little slow. Melissa McCarthy's Spy came in below expectations at a $29 million start, but held well for a summer flick, closing at $110 million stateside and $235 million worldwide. Also opening that weekend were horror threequel Insidious - Chapter 3 (decent $52 million gross, though nowhere near its predecessor's $85 million pick-up) and TV adaptation Entourage (disappointing $33 million gross).
But the marketplace was in for a major surprise the next weekend as Jurassic World, although it was expected to open strong, surprisingly broke the opening weekend record with a massive $209 million. It also broke the worldwide opening record, passing $500 million in the fastest amount of time (3 days). Jurassic continued to play well through the summer, and is on track for a finish above $650 million, coming within $7-8 million of Titanic and ending up in third place on the all-time domestic chart. Worldwide, Jurassic World is only the fourth movie in history to pass $1 billion overseas, and will also finish in the bronze position on the all-time list with a stunning $1.66 billion.
The next weekend also brought a huge hit as the return of Pixar, Inside Out, pulled in the biggest ever opening for an original property ($90 million), and held well throughout the summer. The animated hit remains in wide release in its 14th week (1,200 locations), with an expected domestic finish just under $360 million domestic. Inside Out will finish as the seventh-biggest animated movie of all-time in the U.S., and has yet to open in Japan and China overseas (its at $750 million so far). June 19 also saw the disappointing release of Sundance favorite Dope ($17.5 million).
June ended slow with Ted 2 coming in way behind expectations, a $33 million start and $82 million finish (the $210 million worldwide finish was less than half of the first movie's $500 million gross). Family film Max also opened and finished with unmemorable results ($43 million). July started with the summer's next pricey disappointment, Terminator: Genysis, which opened to just $27 million on its way to $90 million domestically. However, overseas saved the $155 million production, as a strong China performance, lifted the Arnold Schwarzenegger reboot to a near $450 million finish. However, I'm not certain if Paramount will move forward with the two sequels on the calendar (for 2017 and 2019, respectively). July 4th weekend also brought Magic Mike XXL, which also earned way less than its predecessor, with a $66 million domestic finish (the first one earned $110 million). However, with a smaller budget, this one easily made more profit in the end.
Things rebounded nicely the next weekend as Universal's red hot year continued. Despicable Me prequel Minions opened to the second-biggest opening weekend ever for an animated movie, $115.7 million. While it ended up more front-loaded than normal for an animated effort (blame it on mixed word-of-mouth and reviews), Minions still will finish as the eighth-biggest animated movie ever in the U.S. with a $335 million finish. Overseas, the animated flick exploded, becoming the third animated movie ever to pass $1 billion. In the end, with a huge China performance, Minions will finish in the Top 10 biggest movies of all time worldwide, and the second-biggest animated movie behind Frozen.
Other July 10 releases included The Gallows ($22 million) and Self/less ($12.3 million). Marvel Studios returned the following week with Ant-Man. The tiny superhero debuted a little disappointingly, with $58 million, but showcased some very solid staying power, and is on course to finish ahead of the first Thor movie ($181 million). Overseas has yet to have China and Japan open, so there's a good chance Marvel's tiniest hero ends up over $500 million worldwide. Not bad. Not bad. July 17 also brought the critically-acclaimed Trainwreck, which started off with a solid $30 million, and held well on its way to a $115 million finish.
The following weekend brought the debut of Pixels, which came in under expectations with just a $24 million start and a finish around $80 million (and $200 million worldwide, not quite enough to justify a $90 million pricetag plus marketing). Southpaw overperformed ($17 million start. $52 million finish), while Paper Towns was nowhere near The Fault in Our Stars ($32 million final gross). July ended with a huge start for Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation ($56 million), which has held well with a chance at finishing above $200 million. Overseas has been fantastic too, with a chance at earning more than Ghost Protocol ($690 million finish). The Vacation remake got off to a modest start ($15 million), but has held decently on its way to an OK $60 million finish.
August got off to a dismal start as Fantastic Four was another pricey flop. The behind-the-scenes drama and terrible reviews drove the reboot to just a $25 million start, and a $55 million finish ($160 million worldwide). Fox might as well remove the planned sequel from the 2017 calendar. Also opening that weekend with a solid start was The Gift (expected $45 million finish), while Ricki and the Flash (expected $28 million finish) and Shaun the Sheep Movie (expected $20 million finish) were both very modest.
Straight Outta Compton, the last major blockbuster of the summer, out-performed expectations on its way to a $60.2 million opening. Strong reviews led to three-straight weekends at #1, and an expected $165 million domestic finish. Meanwhile, The Man from U.N.C.L.E. was a stinker ($45-50 million expected finish), Sinister 2 failed to generate much attention ($30 million finish), and American Ultra and Hitman: Agent 47 fared even worse ($22 million and $15 million finishes). The month of August ended on a high note as War Room outperformed all expectations with a $11.5 million start, and is set to finish with at least $65 million.
No Escape ($30 million expected finish), A Walk in the Woods ($30 million expected finish) and The Transporter Refueled (below $20 million) all ended summer on a slow note.
Summer 2015 turned into one of the most entertaining seasons of movies I have ever tracked and wrote about. I'm already excited for what Summer 2016 will bring.
