This weekend is going to be another strong one, but a close one:
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Jurassic World ($53 million, -51%)
#2: Inside Out ($51 million, -44%)
#3: Ted 2 ($50 million)
#4: Max ($12 million)
#5: Spy ($6.5 million, -42%)
#6: San Andreas ($5.5 million, -37%)
#7: Dope ($4 million, -35%)
#8: Insidious - Chapter 3 ($2.5 million, -39%)
#9: Pitch Perfect 2 ($2 million, -43%)
#10: Avengers: Age of Ultron ($1.8 million, -36%)
Mad Max: Fury Road ($1.8 million, -40%)
A few weeks back, it seemed likely that Ted 2 would be the likely winner this weekend. But with Jurassic World and Inside Out both breaking records, its going to be incredibly close. Sequels tend to either open slightly higher than their predecessors or a little bit less (even for Avengers and The Hunger Games). The first one opened to $55 million, but reviews are mixed-to-negative (44% on Rotten Tomatoes so far). I think we might be in for a little less.
As for Max, despite a strong marketing effort from Warner Bros., it has to compete against the second weekend of Inside Out for family audiences. Modest grosses are in store, with mixed-to-negative reviews (41% on Rotten Tomatoes). There's always a chance it breaks out if military fans come out in droves.
Jurassic World could threepeat, as its second weekend was much bigger than anticipated, and this weekend has no new competition for action films (though Max may take away some families). Look for a weekend around $50 million if not more. Meanwhile, Inside Out should fall the standard 40-45% second weekend drop for a Pixar film, with the positive word-of-mouth and critical reception keeping it around that mark (and Max most likely keeping it from having a stronger hold).
As for the holdovers, Dope should have the strongest hold as its positive word-of-mouth will kick in with little to no direct competition. Also San Andreas, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Insidious: Chapter 3 and Mad Max: Fury Road will benefit from little competition. Meanwhile, the addition of Ted 2 will cause Spy and fellow Universal pic Pitch Perfect 2 to have the harder drops of the bunch.
