Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: Furious 7 ($64 million, -57%)
#2: Home ($20 million, -26%)
#3: The Longest Ride ($15 million)
#4: Get Hard ($7.5 million, -43%)
Cinderella ($7.5 million, -26%)
#6: Insurgent ($6.5 million, -35%)
#7: Woman in Gold ($4 million, expanding)
#8: It Follows ($1.7 million, -38%)
#9: Danny Collins ($1.5 million, limited release)
#10: Kingsman: The Secret Service ($1.3 million, -28%)
The Longest Ride is tracking for a solid, if unspectacular debut. For Nicholas Sparks, his track record has been mixed. The Best of Me was an all-time low for his adaptations at just a $10 million opening. Tracking has been more favorable to this one though, but its not quite as strong as Safe Haven or The Lucky One. A mid-teens millions debut will have to suffice.
Furious 7's record-smashing opening guarantees a second-straight week on top (and it could very well top its third and fourth weekends as well). As for how hard the drop will be, less than 50% would be too optimistic for a movie that opened that huge. In the end, its' gonna have to suffice for a drop more in the high-50's percentile, though that might be a tad generous.
Home's daily patterns this week have been in line with The Croods and just under How To Train Your Dragon's daily pace. If it can continue to follow these trajectories, it should be in for a very strong hold. Cinderella's daily patterns, on the other hand, have been slightly ahead of Oz: The Great and Powerful's post-Easter daily grosses. That movie earned $8 million on the post-Easter weekend, so Cinderella should wind up at least close to that this weekend.
With no added competition, Get Hard should be set for a much better hold this weekend, as it tries to have legs to reach $100 million. Meanwhile, critically-adored horror thriller It Follows should stay in the Top 10 also. Unless another limited release gets stronger-than-expected results, Kingsman looks to make it 9-straight weeks in the Top 10.
The two limited/expanding releases have mixed prospects. Last week's Woman in Gold is expanding to 1,500 locations, while Danny Collins opens in limited release. The wide number of theaters guarantees at least double last week's gross for the Helen Mirren drama, though mixed reviews could hold it back. Meanwhile, Al Pacino's Danny has received good reviews and could be a strong choice for arthouse audiences.
